NATO Meets In Berlin With Finland and Sweden As Guests
Day 80. The world questions Turkey, Germany, France, and Hungary on their positions regarding Ukraine
NATO meets and talks, while we wait to see if Finland and Sweden will apply for NATO membership. War and allies are important, hence why NATO was created, but countries are still sovereign and make their own choices as the UK did in offering security guarantees to Finland and Sweden ahead of their applications.
What this conflict has done is shown that the EU and NATO are not as united as they believe they are, with countries opposing sanctions and resolutions, and Macron who is eager to reform the EU with Merkel gone and the UK out.
Trust is key, so can we trust Hungary (a NATO and EU member), where they opposes sanctions against Russia and refuse to allow heavy weapons to be transported through the country to Ukraine. They have also failed to offer to supply any weapons to Ukraine.
Can you trust Germany, who have been weak from the start, who sent a few thousand helmets as aid, and where the international community has shamed them into being proactive. Germany is where the American NATO headquarters is stationed, and so it is key player in this conflict that they don’t seem to really want to be a part of. A ceasefire is a pause, and the calls for such an action have been made for weeks. Surely by now Scholz has realised he is wasting his breath, as if the Russians were going to agree to a ceasefire they would have done so by now and only if it was beneficial to them.
What about Turkey, who were eager to pose as mediators between Russia and Ukraine, and who were pushing propaganda saying that a deal was in the making, and that Ukraine had considered giving up territory only to hear that the Ukrainians had said no such thing. Turkey seeks EU membership, and by appearing to be a key player in negations they believe they have international power and this performance will aid their application. By stating they will not support two EU countries (Finland and Sweden) who might apply for NATO membership, they have killed any hopes of their EU membership application to be reconsidered. Why have they stated such opposition? Turkey has commercial ties with Russia, and they do not wish to jeopardise those including allowing Russian tourists to visit Turkey and by paying for a scheme to bypass the sanctions.
Finally, we come to France and Macron. The French are beginning to mistrust him and question his motives with his recent comments. The rest of world expected France to be leading the fight for democracy, only to find that Macron is dragging his heels and is actually seeking appeasement while planning how to reintegrate Russia back into the fold while they are still causing destruction.
There are a great number of people around the world who have criticized Macron, and in fact both he and Scholz have been trending on Twitter for the last two days, and ‘France and Germany’ as well, and not in a positive way. Macron has been called a coward, a Putin pleaser, and Scholz his sous-chef. Others have asked what part of France or Germany are they willing to give up to help Putin save face? This was a major political error on Macron’s part, or an arrogant gamble that has backfired. The wrong comment at the wrong time. It is one of those things you may think, but you never say in public.
Many have said that the invasion has forced Europe to be united and it has in some respects, but it also has shown the true colours of some leaders who seek to use this as a platform to elevate their status while looking after their own needs. Putin must be rubbing his hands in glee at dividing Europe and the West. How can France and Germany save face now after a disastrous couple of days where their comments have been seen as weak and as a means to appease the Russians rather than to fight and defend democracy?
Day 80 (14 May)
Reports claim that Russian troops are withdrawing from Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine that is close to the Russian border. While reports claim this is a Ukrainian victory, one should also consider that this is a tactic. As we saw from the CCTV footage of the Russian soldiers taking to civilians at a bike shop, they left and and as soon as they turned their backs the Russians double backed and shot them, then broke in and looted the premises.
While there are positive reports that previously occupied areas have been liberated in Ukraine, there is much work to be done before life can get back to normal. One must also anticipate that the Russians may return after regrouping, therefore, there should be no complacent with the ‘victory’.
A breakaway occupied area in Georgia (South Ossetia) states that they will hold a referendum on whether the region should become Russian.
The Avozstal evacuation attempt in Mariupol continues. The Ukrainians are using intermediaries to negotiate the safe passage of wounded solider in exchange for Russian PoW, but so far there has been no agreement.
Erdogan of Turkey has stated that he would not support Finland or Sweden becoming members of NATO. At the NATO meeting today in Berlin, Finland and Sweden will be guests, and other members of NATO can clarify why Turkey is opposed to the potential application. Having heard a brief clip of his interview, his reasons are baseless, alleging that the Netherlands and Sweden are ‘guesthouses’ for Kurdish militants.
Olaf Scholz joins Macron in making phone calls to Putin. I really can’t understand why they think they can influence a dictator. As for Scholz, the last 3 months have shown that Germany is weak, is not a leader, and is willing to compromise to appease for their own benefit.
Finnish President (Sauli Niinistö ) has called Putin and told him of the intention to join NATO. Putin has told him that at present there is no threat against Finland, but joining NATO would be a mistake. Is that a threat?
Macron, a Napoleon wannabe has been criticized by the Lithuania President (Gitanas Nauseda), the French and other politicians in Europe. If Macron had made these statements, declaring that Europe should not humiliate Putin as there is a need to rebuild trust and peace at some point, and that he is advising Zelenskyy to give up Crimea and Donbas as a negotiating tool, then seriously NO ONE SHOULD BE LISTENING TO MACRON.
I would imagine if he made these speeches during his election campaign he would not have won so easily and more voters would have cast a blank vote. I, like many expected Macron would show his true colours after the election and to my detriment (and that of Europe) he has. I have not seen anyone applaud his words, but I have seen a flurry of disappointed French who are ashamed of their leader, and others who have repeated what I have said, in that France and Germany seem to have their own agenda during this conflict and it is not necessarily going to benefit Ukraine or Europe in the long term.
The G7 have stated that they will never recognise any new borders of Ukraine should Donbas or Crimea be occupied as Russian territory. The G7 are Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.
Members of the US Republican Party visit Kyiv today including Mitch McConnell.
Masterful analysis EL. Thank you