NATO ~ Is It Enough To Deter A World War?
As the world isolates the Russian Federation and Russians, Ukrainians are dying and the country is being destroyed.
The key phases being used in the conflict right now are, ‘no-fly zone’, and ‘escalation’, and these relate to how NATO is going to react to the conflict. Basically, NATO doesn’t wish to engage in warfare (it is a peacekeeping alliance after all), and by creating a no-fly zone, that would indicates engagement and would escalate to war. While the Russians appear to be escalating their attacks, the world leaders are trying to de-escalate the conflict. NATO exists a a deterrent to war. How NATO chooses to respond is key to the crisis, and while negotiations leave the door open for a resolution, we must look at the key reason why Russia (Putin) has mounted this ‘special military operation’, and what Ukraine and the other world leaders can offer to halt the conflict.
NATO condemns in the strongest possible terms Russia’s attack on Ukraine of February 2022, which is entirely unjustified and unprovoked. This is a grave violation of international law and a serious threat to Euro-Atlantic security.
The Alliance also condemns Russia’s decision to extend recognition to the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine.
NATO Allies call on Russia to immediately cease its military action and withdraw all its forces from in and around Ukraine.
While NATO issues statements that the majority of the world agrees with, they are but words. You can’t reason with bullies and dictators for they don’t wish to listen and are only interested in their own aims. They have no respect for laws because they don’t believe they apply to them, and they attempt to justify their actions through propaganda and faux manifestos. NATO has the power to act, but seems afraid to use that power, or have failed to find a way to use that power within the guidelines.
Day 12 (7 March)
Putin offers evacuation routes for Ukrainians that lead to Belarus or Russia.
The cities under fire are, Kyiv (passage to Belarus), Mariupol, Sumy, and Kharkiv (passage to Russia).
Russians who protest against the war can be detained, and face up to 15 years in prison.
Netflix pulls out of Russia.
TikTok suspends live-streaming in Russia due to laws imposed by Russia, where if people write or broadcast content that is deemed false about the military operation, they will be imprisoned
The Kremlin objects to the conflict being called a war, and refers to it as a ‘special military operation’.
Further talks are scheduled between Russia and Ukraine.
As Russian airspace is virtually closed, Russians are opting to leave via car to Finland which is one of the few ways to leave the country if you have a visa.
Many citizens are trapped without food, water, or electricity.
Finland and Sweden consider joining NATO through concerns of the invasion of Ukraine. They join NATO for defence talks, as both accept that their countries may get targeted due to their proximity to Russia.
Oil prices have as expected risen to a 13 year high. It is expected they will rise again.
The EU are to consider allowing Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership. This would give them some protection against Russia and deter any planned attacks.
Trains are the only way out and queues stretch for hours. Police are removing all men between 18-60 who cannot leave, and are required to remain and fight.
The British Ambassador has left Ukraine due to security issues.
The West admits they did not act decisively enough against Russian, as the deterrents had obviously failed.
The Kremlin claims it is not seeking to gain further territory in Ukraine. They want assurances that Ukraine can never join an alliance like NATO, that Crimea is recognised as Russian territory, and that Ukraine must be demilitarized, before they will halt the military operation.
Russia fails to appear at the ICJ (International Court of Justice) hearing where Russia is accused of contravening the Genocide Convention.
Russians come under more pressure to state whether they support the actions of Putin or support Ukraine’s right to independence. Russian conductor Valery Gergiev, and now Tugan Sokhiev (Bolshoi Theatre) have ‘resigned’ or been removed for refusing to condemn the invasion on Ukraine.
Zelenskyy releases a video of himself in his office in Kyiv stating he will not leave until war is won and he is not hiding, and is not afraid.
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
Created in 1949, NATO was a united alliance of countries who wished to work together to avoid another war, and was seen as a peacekeeping deterrent. The threat from the Soviet Union remained after the Second World War ended, and NATO had several aims:
“…(to deter) Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.”
An attack on one member, was an attack on all members. The alliance was formed so that members would help defend, and protect one another should the need arise. There are currently 30 members, and together the aim is to prevent conflicts through political discussions. If diplomatic discussions fail, then NATO has the military resources to carry out operations if necessary. The idea is to defend rather than to attack, and act as a deterrent to prevent the escalation of war. This is subject to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which has been invoked once in 2001 (9/11 in the USA)
Ukraine is not currently a member of NATO, but is an Enhanced Opportunities Partner, which is part of NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative, where the partners contribute to operations and may become members later on.
If we look at the map, we can see that the conflict has affected many European countries, where those who border Ukraine have had an influx of refugees, and those near the Russian borders are looking to defend themselves should the Russians decide to invade them.
Ukraine (Former state of the Soviet Union) – a sovereign and independent state has borders with:
Belarus – Client state of the Russian Federation. Former state of the Soviet Union.
Poland – NATO member.
Slovakia – NATO member.
Hungary – NATO member.
Romania – NATO member.
Republic of Moldova – Constitutionally neutral, has assisted NATO in Kosovo, and joined the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which allows discussion with allies and partner countries in Europe. Former state of the Soviet Union
Russia – Illegal annexation of Crimea, and has invaded Ukraine in unprovoked attack.
Russia has borders in Europe with:
Ukraine – An independent sovereign state who has a partnership with NATO. Former state of the Soviet Union
Belarus – Client state of Russian Federation. Former state of the Soviet Union
Georgia – An independent republic, who has a partnership with NATO. Former state of the Soviet Union
Finland – A parliamentary republic that remains neutral, and has partnered with NATO in peace keeping missions, and is an Enhanced Opportunity Partner. Both Finland and Sweden have enhanced their roles with NATO, agreeing to Host Nation Support, which allows troops to transit through their territories in a crisis. They are both part of the NATO Response Force, that delivers emergency relief, and can respond to a crisis immediately to defend and to deter.
Estonia –NATO member.Former state of the Soviet Union
Latvia – NATO member. Former state of the Soviet Union
Lithuania – NATO member. Former state of the Soviet Union
Azerbaijan – Independent republic. Former state of the Soviet Union
Kazakhstan – A unitary republic that actively cooperates with NATO in several areas. Former state of the Soviet Union
Norway – NATO member
As you can see, several countries have NATO protection, but it is a case of wishing to avoid war rather than have to use the military forces of NATO as a defensive measure.
Why is the Russian Federation (Vladimir Putin) invading Ukraine?
Putin has made no secret of the fact that he disapproved of the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), and his aim has been, and is to reform the USSR. Ukraine is the country with extensive and rich natural resources, and therefore, is profitable and was always a target.
Most of the former Soviet states (as below) have slowly found their own way, and enjoyed a measure of independence and democracy, but it has taken years, and now that new found freedom seems to be under threat. Is Russia picking up where it left off in 1945? Those who remember the war in 1945 will know that a dictator can’t be negotiated with, and that they have no mercy. Will the former states be on a list to be reclaimed by Putin? They were all aware that it might happen one day, and once Putin takes one state (as he has done with the illegal annexation of Crimea), then he will have the appetite to continue. Which of the states * are vulnerable to a Russian invasion?
Armenia – South of Georgia, would be vulnerable if Georgia was invaded.
Azerbaijan – South of Georgia, would be vulnerable if Georgia was invaded.
Belarus – Client state of Russian Federation.
Estonia – NATO protected.
Georgia* – Association agreement with EU, considered a potential Russian target
Kazakhstan* – A Russian ally, but has distanced itself and chosen not to assist Russia with military aid, and does not recognize the disputed separatist states (Donetsk and Luhansk). Could become a target if a war progresses as a retaliatory measure.
Kyrgyzstan – Dependent on Russia, and supportive of the invasion.
Latvia – NATO protected.
Lithuania – NATO protected.
Moldova* – Association agreement with EU, considered a potential Russian target
Tajikistan – Dependent on Russia, and supportive of the invasion, suffering from effects of sanctions.
Turkmenistan* – Neutral, but has supported Ukraine in the past. A possible target.
Ukraine* – Invaded by Russia, and seeking EU membership and NATO aid.
Uzbekistan –Dependent on Russia, and supportive of the invasion.
Putin believes the Ukrainian invasion is justified, as he is ‘saving’ people by ‘denazifying’ them. Obviously, we know that is untrue and while there might be some pro-Russian supporters, the majority of Ukrainians wish to live in a democratic state. That is what they are fighting for, their right to defend their state. The democratic world supports them, for no one asked Putin to ‘save’ them, and the unprovoked attack is an act of aggression that words will not resolve. Putin wants power and control of others, and that is why negotiations will be futile, for what Putin wants is for Ukraine to surrender and to be part of the Russian Federation.
The live feeds in Ukraine show images of people who don’t want to leave their homes, and who have died in missile attacks, families who have been separated, and who have lost everything and are surviving by sleeping in bunkers or in the subway for safety, with babies born in bunkers. They will be denied the traditions of being born— a birth certificate, or a christening, for survival is all that matters right now.
Are productive negotiations and a peaceful resolution possible?
When Putin offered safe passage to Belarus and Russia to the refugees, you have to wonder what kind of sick game the Russians are playing? The people are trying to escape the Russians and not to go and take shelter there! That was an empty gesture, and is an indication that Putin is not willing to negotiate.
How many Russian citizens actually support the invasion? Those who oppose it are silenced and imprisoned, and they too are caught up in the invasion where they are trapped in Russia, with sanctions isolating them from the rest of the world. They are victims of this invasion by default, and must suffer the consequences of sanctions and being trapped and silenced in Russia.
There are no doubt atrocities that have not been reported, and where we will only find out the full extent of the damage of the invasion years after it has ended. The West have tried sanctions, and most of the Russian oligarchs know how to bypass this already, and negotiations and talks aren’t making any progress with the Kremlin repeating their demands and not willing to actually negotiate.
The question that is being asked is when will NATO ‘act’, and how many more lives will be lost before they do? They made the rules, so they can create new ones to be tailored to the situation if they wish, and that is what is needed. What was drafted in 1949 may have been suitable for the time, and amendments should be made to keep with the new threats from hostile actors.
While we all desire a peaceful resolution to the conflict, the reality is a different matter—why would the EU consider a fast tracked membership for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova unless they knew they are likely to be targeted by Russia? Zelenskyy will address the House of Commons on 8 March 2022 (tomorrow), where I expect him to appeal for aid, and to thank the UK for supporting Ukraine. What he wants and needs are NATO military troops to push back the Russians and oust them. In a way, Putin is daring NATO, knowing that they technically cannot act unless Russia invades a NATO country. He read the Treaty and worked around the guidelines, and that is why NATO needs to remember why NATO was created—to defend and protect Europe from dictators.
Putin has torn up the rule book, and perhaps it is time that NATO amended their rules, and actually do what the alliance had been set up for 73 years ago, and that is to defend and keep the peace? Those who were party to the original treaty have probably passed, but I imagine they would be yelling to the current leaders to ‘get on with it’, because rebuilding Ukraine will take years, while each day more cities are destroyed and innocent lives are lost. The longer NATO twiddles its thumbs waiting for an ‘legitimate’ opening to act, they are appear to playing into the hands of the Russians. No one wants a war, but how can one be averted when Russia will only cease fire if Ukraine virtually surrender, and leave themselves as an open target to be occupied? Who believes that the Kremlin will only be content with Crimea being recognised as part of the Russian Federation, and will not seek to claim other territories? No one, but sending food, clothing, and medical supplies to Ukraine will not end the conflict. The fact is only a strong army can force the Russians to retreat and stop them from advancing. Even if Russia halts the invasion, what is to stop them making another attempt?
Tonight, my thoughts are with the Ukrainians who are trapped, and who are fighting for liberty and to survive. May God watch over them during this crisis.
Emboldened by NATO's reluctance to stop him when he invaded Crimea, gave Putin the confidence he needed to do what he has now done, which is genocide. Does NATO actually think he will stop at Ukraine? No sane person wants war but NATO must START adhering to its principles to maintain peace in the region. Emboldened as he his by NATO's reluctance to ACT, his next targets could be the Baltic countries, all NATO members, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
I don't understand why it was OK to intervene in Bosnia but not Ukraine. Yet several NATO countries did including us. Genocide is genocide I agree but what is happening in Ukraine is far worse than anything else since WWII. I know we are all worried that it will unleash nuclear war but if their tanks can be destroyed so easily, if the 40 mile long queue of vehicles all have worn and useless tyres and, by now, also have flat batteries, why would their nuclear weapons be fit for anything other than parading in Red Square once a year. But there again, do we wish to take that chance?
I cannot think why any sane person would not feel strongly that Ukraine should be in NATO, they are canny fighters and I applaud the way they are defending their country as best they can but why on earth does Putin think the West is remotely interested in his poxy country. Why not concentrate on free trade and let the Russian people enjoy the fruits of their labour instead of everything going to the top dogs. Even Putin's daughter I believe is still living in the UK. Why?