There is Ukrainian war fatigue as the world waits for the inevitable ( world war) or hopes that NATO and the UN can do enough to prevent it, because that is why these alliances exist. Ukraine needs closure from Russia and a ceasefire and peace deal won’t work, and because it has been tried before in Donbas and Crimea, it has failed and led to the current situation. Are we merely staving off the inevitable?
Donbas appears to be on the brink of annexation which had been the plan since 2014. It took time to build up forces and to plant and recruit traitors, and then Covid-19 came along in 2020 and scuppered any plans for a couple of years. Retaking Crimea and the Donbas will require more than the odd donated tank or MLRS—it will need a full scale, and fully equipped army. Right now, Ukraine is battling with piecemeal weapons, a bit like trying to make do with charitable donations. You cannot win a battle without the right equipment no matter how skilled the army is, or how determined and brave they are. Missiles and ammunition do no distinguish between the brave or the traitor.
The battle for unblocking the ports for the export of grain continues, and Turkey ‘claims’ they are working hard to negotiate with Russia. Many are wondering how hard they are working, and what is there to negotiate as Turkey controls the waters and can tell Russia to take a hike? Russia is the invader and trespasser here.
Turkey is also involved in the Russians stealing Ukrainian grain, where Russian vessels have stopped at Turkish ports. They have bene asked to investigate ships from as far back as 13 June. That is nearly a month ago. It does look as if Turkey is playing both sides as it is not a member of the EU, has not imposed full sanctions against Russia, but is under NATO rules which see Russia as a hostile threat. If indeed Turkey has been accepting delivery of stolen grain from Russian vessels, where does that leave them in terms of being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and can they be trusted to resolve the current Black Sea blockade? How will NATO react? They cannot allow a member state to carry out traitorous acts.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world has other issues such as floods, shootings in the US, and domestic political issues in the UK, US, France, and Germany. Ukraine is important, but world leaders have to balance their domestic responsibilities with their international ones. Personally, I see it as an opportune time for the opposition parties to be as difficult as possible to remove them from power so that they can gain control. What this does is cause instability on an international scale, and forces world leaders to scale back on their foreign policies to appease the electorate and to stop the hounding from the opposition.
These factors play a part in the bigger picture of preventing World War III, and should it happen, then no one wants a new government trying to take control or one that is weak due to internal bickering. Politics on the whole is a dirty business, and we are all well accustomed to fibs, cover-ups, sex scandals, and corruption. None of it is acceptable, but we must balance things with what was a mistake or what what was deliberate and harmful. To top it all, Covid-19 is on the rise again (no surprise, I am a KN95 masker wherever I go) and even triple jabbed people have been hit by the virus. With free testing and official restrictions gone in most cases, who knows how many people are wandering around mask less and contagious, while flying, or standing next to you while yelling on a phone in a queue without giving you space?
Day 132 (5 July)
The 30 NATO member states ratify the protocols signed by Finland and Sweden. There was as usual some protest by Turkey who threatened to withhold their approval unless their terms had been met, but apparently were given assurances they would be honoured. Turkey, literally looks like a turkey in the pack, ranting and raving and throwing their toys out of the pram. Terrorism is everywhere, and probably more so in Turkey itself. There was no doubt the protocols would be ratified as it is a measure to prevent another world war.
The FSB have uncovered an unnamed lawmaker who was recruited in Moscow and paid up to $4,000 to provide information on Ukrainian border policies, and strategies on the war in the Donbas. He faces charges of treason, which is life imprisonment. This appears to be the reason why the Russians have been able to advance with ease, with traitors in government who are supplying information to the pro-Russian proxies.
Another traitor has been found in Kharkiv—a 41-year old local resident has been collecting information on Ukrainian troops and their positions and has been passing the information to the Russians. This is a prime reason why a ceasefire will only make things worse, because it will allow the proxies and traitors to continue working to undermine the Ukrainian army. The only way is to expel all Russians and all traitors from Ukraine before there can be a chance of reconstruction.
Reports claim that referendums will be held in the Donbas in August. This will be of course rigged as many people have fled the area or have died, but as Russia as recognised the region as part of the Russian Federation, this will mean an annexation. I feel that the heavy weapons have arrived too late to save Donbas, and that the fight to reclaim the entire region will be bloody and messy, but will be necessary.
Russia has decided to remove their troops from the Finnish border as the NATO protocols are finalised. Putin claims that Finland and Sweden were free to join NATO unlike Ukraine. Again, Putin is making a claim on Ukraine even though it is recognised as a sovereign and independent state.
Day 133 (6 July)
Citizens in Sloviansk are urged to evacuate due to heavy Russian shelling. This comes as Russia forges ahead to take Donetsk, the remaining part of the Donbas region. While I understand that people don’t wish to leave their homes, we are in the fifth month of the invasion that all Ukrainians are aware of, so why are they waiting until they are attacked to evacuate, making it harder for themselves and those who are trying to help them? It seems that once the Ukrainian army knows that they will have to retreat, then they tell people to evacuate. I know that people wish to have faith in their troops, but it is far easier to defend territory without having to take care of civilians. Common sense to me is to evacuate as soon as it was possible, and from many accounts, most Ukrainians were prepared for this moment.
Pro-Russians have seized 2 foreign vessels in the Donbas region, claiming they are state (Russian) property. They are believed to be from Liberia and Panama. Around 80 vessels are trapped in Ukrainian ports with cargo and cannot be left unattended. This amounts to virtual piracy, and depending where the vessels are, Turkey might have a say in matter if the vessels are moved. It looks as if they are stealing the cargo on the vessels.
Ukraine has asked Turkey to investigate three Russian ships that have been flagged, as they visited Sevastopol in Crimea and then stopped at Turkey and Syria. This was on 13 June 2022, but Turkey doesn’t seem to have done very much, either because they don’t want to or are using excuses to say they can’t. The stolen Ukrainian grain has been tracked as being transported out via this route, and I wouldn’t rely on Turkey to investigate or do anything because cheap grain will help their economy.
The Russian and Belarus propaganda continues, with the current spin being that Ukraine is occupying Sloviansk, and that Russia is trying to liberate the town, just as they have liberated Kherson and Lysychansk.
Micheál Martin, the Taoiseach of Ireland has visited Kyiv, Bucha and Irpin today, reaffirming support for Ukraine.
An official in Kharkiv has been found with a Russian passport. Investigations continue as it appears to have been linked with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Russia seems unhappy that Macron has published details of a phone call he had with Putin a few days before the invasion. Lavrov called it a ‘breach of diplomatic etiquette’. Many would say that invading a sovereign state, and torturing and killing people without provocation was more than a breach of etiquette.
@EL - I agree completely with this succinct analysis. I'm waiting for the PM's speech in a few moments, and have nothing to add to this, EL. To say that I am sorrowful and dismayed and apprehensive at this moment is to understate the case. TC
Evening, all. I usually do not comment in the evening, but, probably like many fellow Britons, I am glued to the situation at Westminster as Johnson's premiership collapses. I bring this up here because, whatever else one might say about Johnson, he has from the beginning of the invasion, maintained the stance that I applaud and share. I am, therefore, in addition to being saddened by this spectacle, concerned that the next iteration of the party (assuming no snap election is called and it remains in power) will not show the strength of support for defeating Putin that Johnson did.
I do not believe that the rest of Europe is nearly as firm in this as Johnson was. TC