Merkel Speaks On The Failures Of The Minsk Protocols
The former Chancellor of Germany talks for the first time since her resignation and defends her actions
The last 24 hours have been quite busy although you wouldn’t know it from the lack of reporting in the mainstream media. Merkel talks and tries to defend her actions (she opposed Ukraine’s 2008 NATO membership application) and she didn’t do a good job, the captured Britons are being tried in a Donetsk court, several pro-Russian traitors in Ukraine have been sentenced to imprisonment for treason, while Russia and Turkey discuss the grain blockade and do not invite Ukraine or the UN to participate in the discussions.
At present, it seems that the grain supplies may run out by autumn if the blockade is not lifted. Yet, Russia has managed to steal grain and is selling it to the Middle East and Africa.
Everyone seems to be discussing things, trying to get what they can out of negotiations while people are dying and suffering. We, like Ukraine must wait for the West to deliver the plagued weapons. Only then can Ukraine truly defend the country and push Russian into either retreating or surrendering. It seems that the world already is quietly at war with the numerous discussions being carried out. Will Russia keep to their word or not. They have a poor track record on adhering to agreements. I imagine that the same would occur, so why does everything think it will work this time?
Day 105 (8 June)
Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, two Britons captured in Mariupol are bing held in a prison in the separatist area called the Donetsk People’s Republic, and have appeared in a makeshift court. We know that the Russians are keen to use the captured soldiers in Mariupol to further their propaganda and seek to impose the death sentence for alleged war crimes. Reports claim that they may face sentences of up to 20 years.
Angela Merkel has surfaced for the first time in 6 months after she resigned as the German Chancellor. Her comments include her stating she is not to blame for what has happened to Ukraine and has no apology to make. She states that;
..if diplomacy doesn’t succeed that doesn’t mean that it was wrong.
She is referring to the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 (formed to secure peace in eastern Ukraine when separatists attacked Ukrainian troops, in what is now called the Donbas region), otherwise known as the Minsk Failures as the first agreement failed which yielded a second version. France and Germany were the mediators, and the failures of the second version led to the Russians invading on 24 February 2022. I think we can safely say their diplomatic efforts failed. Hollande and Merkel were those involved at the start, and Macron and Scholz have taken up the baton. However, Putin declared the Minsk Agreement was void and no longer applicable earlier this year, so why try and have discussions with a party who isn’t interested in holding any, and who has ignored all the prior agreements?
Merkel also claims that stalling Russia with the Minsk agreements gave Ukraine time to strengthen its democracy. We must remember that the previous USSR states were and still are very new, only 30 years old and that they needed support not ‘time’ to figure it out while being threatened.
She tries to claim credit for stalling a war for 7 years, which allowed Ukraine to build up troops and to grow as a democracy. I must laugh because she did little to help this by failing in mediating a peace process that both sides ignored. Her other claim is that if the peace deals had not been made, Putin would have caused more damage. He annexed Crimea already that year, and it is a well established fact that Minsk was ignored by both sides in the end (Russia the aggressor and Ukraine the defender), and is a prime example of how diplomacy can fail and leads to dire consequences. Although I do believe in diplomacy, a good diplomat must accept when talks are not working, and that they won’t work, then pursue a different course of action.
Among her comments include her reasons for not supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership application in 2008, claiming she was trying to prevent a war and if they had joined, Russia would have invaded sooner. Obviously if she was aware of this, surely it made sense for Ukraine to join as a preventative measure?
I was very sure that Putin would not just let it happen (Ukraine’s NATO membership) and would do something to Ukraine, and it wouldn’t be good and the country back then was not able to put up the kind of extraordinary defence it has mounted today.
Therefore, if Merkel knew Putin was a threat, why was she making deals that would create ties with a country when she knew sanctions would be made against them at some point? That’s like getting into bed with the devil and hoping that you’ll be fine. She also states that allowing Ukraine to join NATO would have led to war—however, only Germany had that belief, and France (Sarkozy) was the only other country to oppose Ukraine’s application. All the other countries did not share Merkel’s beliefs. Methinks she is trying to backtrack and defend her actions that really have no justifiable basis. She also claimed that Putin would have attacked Ukraine during the ascension process, as he would have seen NATO membership as a declaration of war.
She stated that Ukraine was unstable and riddled with corruption, but each country has corruption and was not a good enough reason to oppose membership. NATO membership is supposed to be open to all European countries. Another defence she has used is that she was trying to prevent escalation in 2008, even though Russia had not invaded Ukraine, but there had been signs that Russia had been seeking to reform the USSR since 1991.
She further adds;
Putin wants to destroy the EU because he sees it as a precursor to NATO.
Which begs the question, why did Germany opt to do business with Russia, knowing that Putin was intent on destroying the West and wished to disrupt the EU? Surely such an action would leave Germany vulnerable?
Merkel also attempts to defend her negotiating the gas pipeline deal (Nord Stream 2) with Russia, stating as neighbours they had to get on. Scholz has now halted that project.
Lukashenka (President) of Belarus has ordered military exercises to be held at the Ukrainian border in support of Russia. This means that the Ukrainian army will have to deploy troops there should Russians?Belarusians cross the border. The tactic is to deplete the Ukrainian resources that are in the Donbas fighting to defend the region.
The grain blockade talks were held between Russia and Turkey. Ukraine was not invited, yet the two countries claim that any decision needs to be made with them and the UN. How can that happen when the other parties aren’t present? Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign Minister for Russia and Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, his Turkish counterpart met in Ankara to discuss the grain shipping route as a resolution to the blockade.
The ‘plan’ is for Turkey to monitor a safe corridor for the freighters to pass, and for Ukraine to de-mine the waters. The issue is how can Russia be trusted not to attack as they are currently blocking the access?
As expected, the talks yielded nothing except Russia repeating that sanctions against Russia need to be lifted, and Ukraine needed to clear the Black Sea of mines. Ukraine is reluctant to remove the mines as it will leave their waters open to Russian attacks. They have sought protection from Turkey who control the sea, but Turkey doesn’t appear to be onboard with that idea as Turkey has remained close to Russia during the conflict.
Turkey has suggested that they de-mine the area and escort the Ukrainian freighters, However, who will guarantee this? Ukraine wants assurances but it leaves the port open for Russia to attack Odesa, but would Turkey prevent Russian ships from moving in? Russia has claimed it has done all that it is required of them to do to make the passage safe, but then claim that it is up to Ukraine to de-mine the area. As usual, Russia says one thing that isn’t accurate and forgets that they lied.
Russia wants something in return, and that is for indirect and direct sanctions to be lifted and have claimed there are no discussions taking place. That is because the Russians want something for nothing again. They are invaders and Turkey have not dealt with the situation well at all, and appear to favour Russia and are only concerned with the grain because they are suffering from food shortages and the price increases.
Options to transport the grain across western Ukraine have been dismissed as there is no infrastructure in place that can handle 20 million tonnes of grain— 1 million at the most. Talks will resume tomorrow.
Meanwhile, grain has left Crimea t(hat the Russians stole) and is headed to the Middle East. The grain is being transported by train from Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, and it is claimed that Turkey has been involved in the contracts (of stolen goods).
The World Bank has approved $1.49 billion in funds to aid Ukraine during the war. These will help Ukraine pay for government workers and essential infrastructure to run the country. Financial guarantees have been offered by the UK, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.
The fate of the captured soldiers in Mariupol is still unknown, as reports claim 1,000 have been transported to Russia to be interrogated. The chances are that they will be tried in a Russian court, and this is where UN and other NGOs need to step in to provide assistance.
The UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace was in Iceland for a meeting with 11 other northern European countries to discuss security and defences in the region. The group is made up of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, UK,Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway and the Netherlands.
Luxembourg has frozen €4.3 billion that have Russian ties, from individuals and companies, which includes property.
Zelenskyy joined the Yale CEO Summit, possibly to encourage people to invest in Ukraine and to persuade those companies still in Russia to sever ties as they are helping to fund the war.
Ukraine is considering purchasing the Israeli ‘Iron Drone’ defence system to protect the cities from missiles. Many wonder why doesn’t Israel gift it to Ukraine as other countries have done?
Several traitors have been found and investigated in Ukraine. This is why a ceasefire will not stop the war as traitors lurk in Ukraine and have been given time to infiltrate the government. The treason of Volodymyr Bandura, the former mayor of Sviatohirsk in Donetsk is being investigated as he was seen publicly supporting the Russian invasion.
In Luhansk, a resident of Novodruzhesk was found guilty of treason for passing information on Ukrainian troops to the Russians. He conspired with a resident of Rubizhne, during April (who was acting as an agent for the Russians), and handed over details of Ukrainian military units and details of weapons that was supplied to the Russians. He was sentenced to 8 years in prison.
In Odesa, a man (called Viktor) was found guilty of treason for supplying pro-Russian traitors information on Odesa checkpoints, and other military positions. He also recruited other pro-Russians to carry out similar traitorous acts.
This is why a ceasefire cannot work when there are pro-Russians hiding and betraying the country. It also explains why some areas were taken by the Russians so quickly as they had been fed intelligence, and why Russia was able to target specific locations because Ukraine had been betrayed by traitors within the country. Thus, they have blood on their hands for killing their own people and neighbours.
Severodonetsk is becoming another Mariupol where the soldiers will not surrender but they are struggling to repel the Russians and are running short on supplies.
Russian occupied regions are being forced to be Russianized. Plans to hold faux referendums in Zaporizhzia and Kherson have been announced again. Plans to formally annexe the latter and to distribute Russian passports to the citizens are being carried out.
I was very fond of Angela Merkel, which shows how little we know! A great article and an extensive look at historical events and diplomacy that I need to read and re-read to take it all in. I'm enthralled by you analysis and insight into the flaws of the Angela Merkel I so admired. Her legacy has taken a Shakespearian tragic plummet. Instead of defending, she should take accountability and try to reason with Putin and prevent an escalation to world war.
Talks continue while the death toll mounts and the destruction continues while millions of Ukrainians have been displaced. Considering the traitors within Ukraine who supplied the Russians with advanced intelligence, it is amazing to me that Ukrainians have managed to defend themselves as long as this into the war against the mighty Russian army.