Day 82 (16 May)
Belarus is sending troops to the Ukrainian border, this is probably to force Ukrainian troops to defend the area and prevent them from being deployed to Donbas or Odesa which are the current hot targets.
McDonalds after hesitating to suspend their services in Russia has decided to sell up in Russia. Many were franchises, but it indicates that they have considered the long-term issues, where their reputation was harmed by remaining open when others has suspended trading. In addition, Russia has stated they will seize assets that have suspended their businesses. Therefore, rather than risk losing everything it is better to see at a loss. They are negotiating with a local buyer to sell all of their 850 restaurants.
For businesses who have suspended their activities they have to decide what to do. Renault owns a stake in Avtovaz (Russia’s largest car manufacturer) and will sell their 68% of shares to the Russian Central Research and Development Automobile and Engine Institute according to the BBC. Effectively, this is the first Russian nationalisation of a foreign business, making it state property. The financial details have not been released but has been said to have been sold for one rouble as a symbolic gesture. Renault have secured a buy back option for 6 years, and has cost the company about $2.29 billion.
Shell announced last week it would sell 400 of it petrol stations to Lukoil before the assets are seized by the Russian state. Other companies such as Coca Cola, and Starbucks are looking to sell their assets now that it doesn’t appear that the war will be over soon. They have all made losses, but it is better to sell at a loss and negotiate a buy back deal than to lose all control.
NATO has stated they will fast-track the applications from Finland and Sweden. It raises questions as to how the alliance is operating as we are aware if Ukraine had been accepted as NATO members the world might not be in such a precarious position right now. The addition of Finland and Sweden would enhance the defensive and security measure in the Baltic region, by air, land, and sea.
Sweden (Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson) has stated as a country they feel vulnerable during the application and ascension process, and would need some security guarantees from NATO. The UK has already signed a security agreement with Sweden and neighbouring Finland. Swedish diplomats have been sent to Turkey to iron out any concerns that Turkey had expressed in public, where Erdogan had openly opposed Sweden’s application to join NATO. Sweden also stated they have made the decision to join NATO due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (as did Finland), and that neutrality would no longer be in the best interests of the country in the future.
Jonas Gahr Stoere, Norway's prime minister has stated that the Nordic countries will support and defend Finland and Sweden, should they come under attack before they become members of NATO:
Together with Denmark and Iceland, Norway stands ready to assist its Nordic neighbours by all means necessary should they be the victim of aggression on their territory before obtaining Nato membership."
Sweden and Finland will send in their NATO applications together, and state this move is about being responsible for securing the respective countries, rather than doing so because they feel threatened.
Extensive NATO military exercises (codename Hedgehog) will take place in Estonia as planned with over 15,000 troops over the next couple of weeks. This will allow NATO to see areas that need to be strengthened, and will include non-members Finland and Sweden.
Yesterday, Stoltenberg stated that Turkey would not oppose Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and no one believed him and we were right to as Erdogan has made a statement that contradicts Stoltenberg. Erdogan has also said that Finland and Sweden sending diplomats to talk to him would be a waste of time. You can see why he is a poor choice as a negotiator for Ukraine as he would be fighting for Russia as Turkey benefits more from Russia than Ukraine. Erdogan claims he can’t support countries that have enacted sanctions against Turkey. Sweden suspended arms sales to Turkey three years ago, due to military intervention in Syria, and according to Turkey, both Finland and Sweden have allegedly rejected requests to extradite Kurdish militants whom Turkey consider as terrorists.
One solution would be to amend and update the NATO charter, so that approval for applications needs 80% majority. They wrote the rules and can amend them to be contemporary and fair. This also reminds us that NATO has no central body or cohesion, and that they look weak when members bicker with each other. Erdogan is clearly making excuses as Turkey is far more dangerous with militants hiding in rural areas, not to mention they have illegally annexed part of Cyprus.
A Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) was held today in Moscow, where the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has criticised the West for their sanctions against Belarus and Russia, and has urged all all members to support Russia. The CSTO includes representatives from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and has a total of 6 members.
At the above meeting, Putin has claimed he has no issue with Finland or Sweden jointing NATO, but has issues with the NATO alliance itself expanding. Thus, he contradicts himself as most dictators do because he doesn’t want to appear to threaten Finland or Sweden, but he claims that Russia must react against NATO, and that he believes this is an American conspiracy that threatens Russia.
There are more than 11,000 alleged war crimes that are being investigated in Ukraine that were carried out by Russian troops. Evidence is being gathered in case it gets destroyed as more mass graves are found, and blood stained rocks and rooms are uncovered. Bullet holes are found in beanie hats as men have been executed after being tortured. Realistically, not all the perpetrators will ever be held to account for some might have been killed already, but in the future, people will ask if these atrocities could have been avoided? If Merkel and Sarkozy had not objected to Ukraine joining NATO, if when Crimea was annexed the West and the UN had been more pro-active to help Ukraine defend itself and implement adequate protective measures in the country?
There are claims that the Russians are trying to buy/bribe those in Mariupol to give false witness statements. Compensation will be given for destroyed houses and dead relatives. Low and disgusting is all I can say to this.
With countries who have maintained neutrality for decades, questions will arise as to how will Switzerland react in order to increase their defences? Suggestions are that they are considering NATO membership too.
A sixth round of sanctions against Russia by the EU is to be agreed shortly. Are the sanctions working? They have had little effect so far, and when Russian citizens suffer it will cause disharmony in Europe. Previous sanctions have not been so severe or lasted as long, but these will not be lifted quickly as before.
Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv have reached the Russian border. It is significant as it means they are retaining control of the second largest city and have pushed back the Russians.
There are reports that the Azovstal soldiers who are wounded can be evacuated under an agreement that they be moved to Novoazovsk to receive medical treatment. Until it happens though, who knows if the Russians will keep to their word. Other suggestions are that they will become PoW, but at least their lives will be saved. There is no word on the fate of soldiers who are not injured. Some may consider this a partial surrender, but we shall have to see what actually transpires.
What this does tell us that the UN really has little power at all, and Russia isn’t afraid of the UN either. They were used as human shields for the civilian evacuation, but failed to extend this to soldiers, injured or not. It also looks as the Turkish extraction offer didn’t work out either. As Mariupol has been in this situation for more than 2 months, why have the humanitarian evacuations taken so long? Besides Russia not wanting to cooperate, it shows that the UN have little influence internationally to keep the peace, which is why the UN exists.
I note Putin's contradiction; while he says he has no issue with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, he does have issues with NATO expanding. That leaves Erdogan of Turkey to object to those countries joining. As Sweden sends officials to discuss the matter with Erdogan, he says they are wasting their time.