The first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is days away now, and a new offensive from Russia is expected. It has taken this long for the allies to provide tanks to Ukraine, and now the fight for jets begins. Many countries are cautious, and have not ruled it out but have not made any commitment to Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine asks for pilots to be trained on the jets, so that if and when jets are supplied, they are ready to use them. They have learned from the tank coalition, that if soldiers had been trained already, then they could use them upon delivery rather than begin to train personnel when Germany finally gave the green light for re-exportation after several months. How many people died waiting for that decision to be made?
At the Munich security conference, Blinken of the US met his Chinese counterpart and relations were frosty after the spy balloon saga. Now it seems that the uS has intelligence that suggests China has been providing non-military support to Russia and would consider supplying military support. Everything is tense, with China denying everything, and the US trying to protect its land and not to escalate things.
We cannot forget the hundreds of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers who have died in they bloody war. More missiles were launched today, and civilians were killed in their own homes. The allied countries seem to prefer offering tanks to jets, and there seems to be a concerted effort to push the tank coalition, where they hope it is enough to force Russia out. Realistically, I don’t think it is enough, especially with Iran and possibly China aiding Russia.
Day 361 (19 February)
Macron has been quoted at the Munich Security Conference, stating that he wishes Russia to be defeated but not crushed. At which point you wonder what Macron is smoking, because it has to be a crushing defeat before Russia will leave Ukraine and it will be by force.
I don't think, like some, that Russia should be totally defeated, attacked on its soil. These observers want above want to crush, Russia. This has never been France’s position, and it never will be.
I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine, and I want to Ukraine to be able to defend its position. (Macron)
Is Macron seeking appeasement again? Can the man really speak for the French when it’s clear that only a total defeat will enable Ukraine to be safe from Russia? You can’t do things by halves—either you support Ukraine, or you support Russia.
As Macron has said before, claiming that Russia should not be humiliated and he was criticised for that, and will be for what appears to be another appeasement strategy. His ideals are wholly unrealistic, as Ukraine is only targeting Russian military convoys in Russia which is permitted under the laws of warfare when a country needs to defend itself.
Macron appears to still believe in his peace plan, and that it can be achieved with piecemeal weapons provided to Ukraine. He wants Russia back at the table, but Russia has already said they are only willing to talk on their terms, and they will not leave the occupied territories. Russia was not invited to the Security Conference.
Blinken has warned his Chinese counterpart , Wang Yi, that if they offer lethal aid to Russia, then there could be consequences. US intelligence suggests that China has been supplying non-lethal military aid such as body armour to Russia already.
Blinken has also stated there are concerns that China has assisted Russia in evading sanctions. I would say it was inevitable and has happened as Belarus has acted as a middleman to export and re-export goods to Russia.
China will deliver a peace speech on 24 February 2023, calling for peace, but without condemning Russia! It will at least give a clearer picture of whether China has been supporting Russia, and many believe that is so as they have vetoed action against Russia, and have supported Russia in UN resolution votes.
The ‘wings for freedom’ mission has hit a block, and as a sop, countries are stating that they could offer training to pilots. This gives hope or false hope for the Ukrainians and also avoids Russia claiming it is an act of provocation.
Poland has asked NATO to offer security guarantees to Ukraine after the war, which may sound premature, but if such assurances were offered, it would serves as a deterrent to Russia and countries that support them.
The IAEA has been rotating their monitoring of the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant, but now the Russians have withdrawn their consent and has blocked the latest rotation. Russia has been using the plant as a military base, with armoured vehicles, and using it to store military weapons and also as a base of soldiers. This has been going on for months, and the IAEA has done nothing because they are powerless and can observe, but cannot do anything about the violations of international law.
The Estonian suggestion that EU countries should club together to buy Ukraine ammunition has received support from Romania and the Netherlands.
Ukraine will not attend the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly next week in Vienna, because Russia and Belarus are expected to attend the Winter Session.
Macron gives the appearance of knowledge and being earnest, but is ambiguous and confusing to me.