Leopards Freed, and Abrams on Zelenskyy's 45th Birthday
Germany, the USA, and Switzerland respond to requests for heavy equipment for Ukraine
The last few days have seen the pressure being directed at Germany and the US, as they both stalled on supplying tanks to Ukraine. There have been protests in Germany to ‘free the leopards’ and finally after months of hesitation, the leopards have been freed. People in Ukraine celebrated by wearing leopard clothing, but it was probably down to the Polish Prime Minister (Morawiecki) who upped the pressure and stated that if Germany would not give their approval for the re-exportation of the tanks, that they would deliver them to Ukraine regardless and deal with the consequences afterwards.
It was inevitable that Germany would have to agree, so why the hesitation? One minute Germany was giving the green light to re-export the tanks, but did not offer any themselves, and then the next minute they offer a delivery of the Leopard 2 tanks because it looks bad if other countries supply them and they don’t. At the same time, Biden offers 31 Abrams, despite earlier claims that they were not send because they are difficult and expensive to maintain. Then, Switzerland gives the green light for countries to re-export equipment to Ukraine despite being neutral.
Biden was keen to claim the offer of heavy equipment was not a move to escalate the situation, and that the US is not at war with Russia. That has been the main concern, that Russia would see the act of supplying tanks as escalation. We talk about escalation, and have done for 11 months now which is why the US hesitated in providing military aid for months. How many lives did that hesitation cost? Russia has been claiming escalation for months whenever an allied country has supplied weapons, but it’s their interpretation to suit their victim narrative to feed to the Russian people
Today is also Zelenskyy’s 45th birthday, and he has had a tough year, and he is having to restructure his own government to ensure there is no corruption or bad practices to enable Ukraine to join the EU and NATO. Common sense tells you that you should not go on holiday when you work for the government and when your country is in the middle of a war. However, some did go on holiday which has led to a ban on overseas travel. It’s nonsensical that citizens are dying and countries are donating aid while a government official goes on holiday!
The battles in Soledar and Bakhmut continue, as Ukrainian troops withdraw from Soledar for the time being to save lives. Those Leopards and Abrams can’t come fast enough, but it will take 3 months for them to be delivered and for soldiers to be trained on how to use the equipment. This is the cost of hesitation, and the history books have told us that this has happened before, yet it seems the world leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of previous generations still to this day
Day 335 (24 January)
Zelenskyy bans personal travel abroad for Ukrainian government officials. This is for several reasons, to avoid corruption (some proxies have escaped this way), and also it’s not a good look when the country is fighting a war for the team in charge to go on holiday.
The Deputy Prosecutor General, Oleskiy Symonenko resigned after it was discovered he went on holiday to Spain. The office handles and investigates the alleged Russian war crimes, and allied countries have offered staff to help assist the office. It is not a good look for staff to then go on holiday.
The Deputy Head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko also resigned. Allegations of corruption arose when he was seen driving expensive sports cars.
Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports of military food supplies purchased at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. Allegations of corruption are being investigated but the department claims it was a technical error.
Other resignations included; Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya, Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda, Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko, and the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk (Reznichenko), Zaporizhzhia (Starukh), Kyiv (Kuleba), Sumy (Zhyvytsky) and Kherson (Yanushevych). In total, 6 top officials resigned and 5 governors were fired.
Investigations as to why the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is paying inflated prices for food is ongoing as potential corruption is suspected. The contracts are not open to public, which makes corruption more of a risk.
Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish Prime Minister increased the pressure aimed at Germany to permit them to export 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. He made an appeal on social media, addressed to Germany. He also said that Germany should be sending some themselves as they have 350 in operation and 200 in storage. Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine needs 300 to fight Russia. Morawiecki also made it clear that he intended to send the tanks to Ukraine within the next two weeks even if Germany didn’t approve the request. Due to the German hesitation, several countries had expressed a wish to re-export the Leopard 2 tanks, and Germany hesitated because it feared Russia would consider it a move towards escalation.
Germany announced they had received a formal request from Poland to re-export the tanks today. The Leopard 2 are important as they were developed specifically to counter the Russian T-90 tanks which are being used. Germany stated a decision would be made on 25 January 2023.
Many have not understood the German hesitation and stalling, and Morawiecki called on Germany to be brave and because they had a responsibility to help. Others have suggested that Germany doesn’t want Ukraine to lose, but they don’t want Russia to lose either in order to restore trade agreements with Russia. The hesitation that Germany has shown has caused many to wonder where their loyalties lie.
Germans have nicknamed the delay as ‘schooling’ where one delays something while promoting good intentions and finding excuses not to proceed.
Germany transfers a Patriot air defence system to Ukraine.
12 countries are ready to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine once Germany approves the move, according to what was agreed at the recent Ramstein meeting This would mean Ukraine would have about 100 tanks, which leaves room for more tanks to be supplied as 300 is the key figure.
A financial Ramstein will be held later this week to discuss the funding of the financial assistance programs.
Late in the evening, it is reported that Scholz has approved the re-exporting of Leopard 2 tanks, and to send 14 tanks from the German stocks (considered one company) to Ukraine.
Reports claim that the US will send Abram tanks to Ukraine and an announcement will be made in the week.
Two British aid workers, Chris Parry and Andrew Bagshaw have been killed while carrying out a humanitarian evacuation. Their car was hit by shelling as they headed towards Soledar which is now a city if ruins.
Switzerland (the Swiss Security Policy Commission of the National Council) is to allow Germany, Denmark and Spain to transfer weapons to Ukraine.
Day 336 (25 January)
Soledar is a lost city where no buildings remain. Ukrainian troops have retreated for now to save lives and are focused on Bakhmut. The Wagner group have been intent on securing Soledar for the salt mines and the tunnels, but the group seem to be at odds with the Kremlin and what the Kremlin want.
Today is the birthday of Zelenskyy who is 45 years old.
Germany formally announces that it will approve re-exports of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. They also stated it would take 3 months, and training for the Leopards would begin shortly. Russia stated that this was ‘another blatant provocation’, and that this would ‘leave a lasting mark’ on relations with Germany, basically saying that the relationship has been damaged in terms of trade. Berlin has issued permits to allow the re-exporting of the tanks to Ukraine.
The Netherlands is considering delivering 18 Leopards, and Spain has also stated they will send Leopards. Sweden has also said it would send tanks but has not stated which ones. The Norwegian Defence Minster, Bjørn Arild Gram confirmed they would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, but did not state how many.
Later in the day, the US announced it would send 31 M1 Abrams (considered one battalion) to Ukraine plus 8 recovery vehicles. Training for the Abrams can begin shortly, but funding for the Abrams is still to be confirmed, which means they will not be delivered for quite a while. Biden wanted to reassure the Russians that this was not a move towards escalation.
There is no offensive threat to Russia. If the troops return to Russia, this war would be over today. (Biden)
The European Court of Human Rights has ruled on Russia being involved in the downing of flight MH17 in July 2014. This is a step to indicate that international courts can and will rule against Russia.
Reports claim that the US requested Israel to transfer old Hawk anti- aircraft missiles to Ukraine. The Israeli government declined the request which makes one wonder whose side they will choose should the war extend outside of Ukraine.
Germany is sending 10,000 Starlinks to Ukraine next month. While Germany has hesitated on the tanks, they have to step up their support to convince the allies that they are fully behind Ukraine.
France is now deemed an unfriendly country as they support Ukraine. In Samara, Russia, a sculpture of the Eiffel Tower was removed.
Russia is using imprisoned Ukrainians in Russia as Wagner recruits . Reports state this is happening in Krasnodar, where some Ukrainian citizens are being held captive in Russia
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Like E - L, I also ponder the question, "How many lived DID the hesitation cost?"