Macron and Scholz need to accept that the Minsk agreements/failures (where their countries acted as mediators) no longer has any relevance, and that they should stop ‘playing their roles’ as Merkel calls it. Putin has already declared the agreement void, and did so by recognising the Donbas region as part of the Russian Federation. It seems that Macron is eager to spearhead a Minsk III, since the last two attempts went so well (NOT).
Key analysts state that a ceasefire will not stop Russia (look at Minsk I and II where the ceasefires did not happen). According to the OSCE reports before the invasion officially began, there were 2,158 ceasefire violations in one day, so you can imagine that insisting on one now during an invasion is next to useless as the Minsk agreements called for an immediate ceasefire. Russia has already declared it wants a reformation of the USSR, and is quickly making occupied areas as Russian as possible. Why do the appeasers think that will satisfy Putin? He annexed Crimea in a month, Kherson was taken within weeks, and Donbas is within reach.
Central and Western Europe (especially France) should recall in the Second World War how fast Germany spread through Europe, and took Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and France within 6 weeks, and left Britain as the last European country to fight the Nazis. Germany occupied all the countries in less than 2 months. Macron has no time to waste with meaningless phone calls, unless he is prepared for Russia to make their way over to France…
While the EU is more united than it was 72 years ago, there are definitive factions and cracks within the EU structure. There always will be when you have so many different cultures, egos, and agendas at play. The crucial cracks will show when the members must vote on giving candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova in about 12 days time. Each country must show their hand, and if they do not support Ukraine at least, then they will be criticized and must explain themselves. Macron will propose his scheme for an alternate club but no one is interested in it. No country wants to look unpopular, and despite Germany declaring it will send heavy weapons, has not managed to salvage itself from the appeasement comments.
Who knows whether Donbas will be annexed by then either? No one can predict what will happen, but we do know that Ukraine doesn’t have enough heavy weapons to defend themselves. This also boils down to money where the people of Lithuania clubbed together to buy Ukraine a drone to help the country defend itself. What has Macron done? What has Germany done? Both have made promises, but a poorer and smaller country has done more than both of them put together. They ought to be ashamed. Other smaller countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland have been supporting Ukraine with what they can, and they all have fewer resources than France and Germany.
Then we have Elon Musk, the richest man in the world who could help the world take a turn towards world peace by purchasing the weapons Ukraine needs. Instead, he chooses to spend $44 billion on a social media platform. The deal may or may not fall through, but those funds could save Ukraine and wouldn’t it be better for Musk to be known to have used his money to help save democracy rather than the space venture he has spent money on?
The issuing of Russian passports in occupied areas creates another international issue, because if the residents in the occupied areas switch their citizenship, then Russia can claim to legitimately protect their citizens. The actual legality of all is uncertain as Putin pushed through legislation to allow people to apply for Russian citizenship quickly. Again, this is a way for Russia to reclaim territories and to make it difficult for Ukraine to retake their land and oust the invaders like Turkey in Cyprus.
Reports are claiming that Macron, Scholz and Draghi (Italy) will visit Kyiv G7 Summit, but France and Italy have not commented on the report made by Germany. Neither Scholz or Macron have visited Ukraine since the invasion (nor Draghi who has visited the US), while other world leaders have visited a number of times already.
Their ideas include a ceasefire, followed by building peace, and then constructing security measures to ensure that Russia cannot invade other countries again. That might seem fine on paper—hold on, that has been tried recently with Minsk I and Minsk II already. Have the trio not read the failures of the agreements and the OSCE reports that stated that the ceasefires were ignored on a daily basis for 8 years? Idealism is fine as a philosophical framework, but it must be balanced with realism.
What Macron, Scholz, and Draghi envision is unrealistic, improbable, unworkable and highly likely to fail based on history, the statistics of Russia adhering to agreements, laws, and pacts, and that Putin has expressed a desire to ‘reclaim’ (invade) other territories. I really don’t think Sweden, Estonia or Lithuania (who have seen veiled threats from Russia this week) are prepared to wait and see if Russia decides to invade them or if Putin was bluffing. Putin doesn’t bluff, but seizes what he believes he is entitled to by force. The Polish, Finnish, and Estonians all know this, and it is the appeasers who think they know better that is creating the division in the EU.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leaders-fall-out-of-key-on-ukraine/
The summit is due to take place on 26-28 June at Schloss Elmau in the Bavaria Alps, where Canada, Germany, the United States, France, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom will discuss security issues and the energy crisis among other issues brought about by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Security in the area has already been tightened and temporary border controls will be in place from 13 June -3 July as a precautionary measure.
While some may say the visit has been a long time coming, it seems to be a visit for appearances sake. How can they justify discussing Ukraine when half the members of the G7 haven’t visited the country? I can imagine Macron trying to push his appeasement rhetoric—perhaps he should be reminded of what happened to Chamberlain?
Day 109 (12 June)
Russian passports were issued yesterday the occupied regions of Kherson and Melitopol (in Zaporizhzia). They are valid from today which is Russia Day (Day of Adoption of State Sovereignty), which marked the start of the Russian Federation and the end of the USSR. So, technically if the Russians celebrate the day, then they are admitting the USSR was dissolved, and admit that the Russian Federation was created as a separate entity to the USSR.
Most of us accept that the Russian Federation is what was left of the USSR as all the other states had seceded. Therefore, you can see the conflicts in the propaganda—on one hand the Russians believe that the former Soviet states illegally left the USSR and that Russia is entitled to reclaim them, yet they celebrate their own state sovereignty.
Yesterday, at the Asia Security Meeting (Singapore), Zelenskyy made an address stating that whatever happens in Ukraine will affect the world. Basically, world peace depends on Ukraine winning, and if they falter then World War III will begin in effect.
This is supported by those who have studied Russian warfare and tactics over the years, and Russia will not stop now that they have unleashed their plans. They have seen the weaknesses of the EU, NATO, UN, and the OSCE, where no international alliance has the courage to put a halt to their illegal actions. The only way to stop Russia is to help Ukraine fight them, and for that they need weapons.
Ukraine has responded to the Biden’s remarks that Ukraine failed to listen to his warnings of a Russian attack. Apparently Zelenskyy requested the alliances to impose a sanctions package against Russia, as a preventive measure but they did not. Ukraine said it was prepared (as much as it could be) but did not anticipate the scale of the attack.
Germany has stated they will provide some weapons (air defence systems) to Ukraine in October because they are still being manufactured. The issue is that it is months away and how much of Ukraine will be left by then?
Taiwan has offered $1.2 million to rebuild the destroyed temples in Ukraine. the Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu made the announcement which probably won’t go down well with China.
Politico has written a report on how the OSCE Special Mission in Ukraine failed, and how it has endangered the lives of the national staff of the OSCE. This is because when the international staff left in a hurry, they left behind sensitive information that contained the identities of the national staff, as well as armoured vehicles in Russia of all places (they drove over the border, and left vehicles as they flew to Turkey). As a result, some of the former OSCE staff that were left behind have been detained or imprisoned by the Donetsk rebels (for alleged treason), and others are in hiding, fearing that the Russians will seek them and arrest them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/10/inside-the-osces-botched-withdrawal-from-ukraine-00038847
Christopher Miller (who reports on his Twitter) and Stephanie Liechtenstein outline the failures of the OSCE that led to the invasion of Ukraine. They had been there for 8 years, knew the situation was getting out of hand and evacuated some international staff mid-February, and the rest of the international staff left a few days after the invasion was in full swing. The national OSCE staff were left to fend for themselves, and those who wished to follow in their own vehicles did so at their own risk, and the OSCE offered no other assistance as per their guidelines.
https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports
The key elements in the article show that the international bodies have little power, and are ineffective as a deterrent. During the 8 years, the separatist groups were building up their troops and gaining power under their very eyes. The Minsk Failures should have aided the OSCE, but clearly no one took any notice of them, and the OSCE Special Mission didn’t seem to enforce the treaty either, or felt powerless to do so.
They were also warned of an invasion in December 2021, but failed to act on that intelligence or take it further it is claimed. It seems that the OSCE didn’t take the threat seriously, or when the invasion occurred, they expected it to be over in a matter of days. When it was clear that was not the case, they all bunked out, and told the national staff to ‘stay safe’, and cancelled all their contracts.
The special mission mandate ended on 31 March 2022, where most staff had already been evacuated. Did they do enough to warn Ukraine and the West of the invasion since they were there to observe and report? What it does highlight is that such bodies are not suited to regions of conflict without iron clad protections and procedures. It really looks as if they left in a hurry when they figured out they couldn’t cope and had no idea what to do, and jumped ship to save themselves.
Olena Zelenka has helped open a refugee centre in Lithuania (Vilnius) for the 50,000 Ukrainians who have been forced to flee.
Japan will donate 33 portable water purifiers to Odesa to be shared with other cities that are struggling to have water supplies.
Schools textbooks in Russia are removing references to Ukraine and Kyiv (ethnic cleansing) and are forcing schools to indoctrinate the pupils with the Kremlin’s version of the special military operation. Refusal means dismissal or even detention.
Severodonetsk has been under intense fire, and it is a Mariupol situation where the Russians have occupied all the residential areas apart from the Azot chemical plant where civilians are taking shelter. A chemical plant has been hit and damaged radiators which has leaked oil causing a raging fire at present.
I am quoting a part of this article,'Russia Day', June 12, Ex Libris; there is detailed discussion on international politics and power of agreements that follows, but as I've said before it is a huge feast to consume in one sitting. The focus is on Macron, Sholz and Draghi (Italy) , 'playing their roles' (Merkel), their ideas, and Minsk agreements. Donbas- Putin claims part of Russian Federation, nullifying Minsk agreement. Ceasefire will not stop Russia- Putin declared the agreement void: Russia wants a reformatiin of the USSR. 12 days time EU voting on candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. "Their ideas include a ceasefire, followed by building peace and then constructing security measures to ensure that Russia cannot invade other countries again." "Idealism is fine as a philosophical framework, but it must be balanced with realism." "...highly likely to fail based on history, the statistics of Russia adhering to agreements, laws, and pacts, and that Putin has expressed a desire to 'reclaim' (invade) other territories. "Putin doesn't bluff, but seizes what he believes he is entitled to by force."
Thanks E-L for reminding me that, after Hitler invaded Poland and pushed on west, it only took six weeks before the Nazi army reached the English channel. The "revision" of school books in Russia reminds me of Goebbels' 1933 book burning campaign.