The last couple of days have been busy, with Ukraine's power infrastructure still down and where many Ukrainians are learning to live with blackouts and to reduce their energy consumption. Repairing the infrastructure will take time, meanwhile, the missile attacks continue.
In Kherson, all citizens have been told to evacuate as the Ukrainian troops are due to encircle the city. This means the Russians may retreat. The next 24 hours will show the strengths or weaknesses of the Russian army.
The IAEA has inspected three nuclear power plants at the request of Ukraine and have found no signs of any actions associated with building weapons. Russia’s propaganda, that Ukraine was building a dirty bomb was dismissed already, but the UN backed agency confirmed that there was no evidence to substantiate such an accusation.
The Bulgarian parliament has finally voted to supply weapons to Ukraine, and Greece has also sent the first shipment of weapons to Ukraine. This is a world war in effect, and US intelligence indicates that North Korea is supplying Russia with ammunition and weapons, and is using Belarus as a conduit country to deliver the weapons. It is unlikely that the US government would release such information if they did not have sufficient evidence. If we look back, a few months ago they stated that Russia was looking to purchase drones from Iran, and unfortunately that intelligence was correct as Ukraine has been subjected to more than two weeks of Iranian drone attacks.
My mother asked me if this war was avoidable, and I replied I thought it wasn't. This is because Putin believes that the former Soviet states still belong to the Russian Federation, and that he had been playing the West for the last few decades, observing their weaknesses and giving them a full sense of security.
Day 253 (3 November)
US intelligence claims that North Korea is looking to supply Russia with weapons. While this has been discussed as a hypothetical situation several months ago, if there is truth to the claim, then does this officially become a world war? Some will say what difference does it make because the US and other European countries are supplying Ukraine with weapons. The difference is that Russia is attacking Ukraine and North Korea would be supporting an unprovoked attack, whilst Ukraine is defending itself and other countries or supplying weapons to help Ukraine defend itself.
Many are wondering why Putin backed down and participated in the Black Sea Grain Initiative again, and it and it was a matter of calling his bluff. Putin wanted assurances that Ukraine would not attack Russian vessels in the shipping corridor, but no one seem to agree with Putin's demands. Ukraine has every right to attack a warship that is launching missiles aimed at destroying Ukrainian towns and cities. The alternative for Russia, was to attack the grain vessels, but that would have achieved nothing if he was seeking support from the African countries who relied on the grain.
Claims that Erdogan of Turkey was key to pushing Russia to change its mind have been made, but the simple facts are that everyone ignored the Russian threats and continued with the exports. Some crew members were killed in the process, but Zelenskyy gives Erdogan too much credit for he also does business with Russia. How can you trust a man who has enabled Russian tourists to visit Turkey, by paying for planes to bring them over, and who has chosen not to impose sanctions against Russia?
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost all power on the 2nd of November, and all 20 diesel generators were used for backup power. This will last approximately 15 days. This appears to be an attempt by Russia to transfer the plant onto the Russian power system. The constant shelling in the region has caused so much damage, yet the presence of the IAEA appeared to make little difference to the Russians.
In Mariupol, reports state that the Russians are making house to house visits to check the personal phones of residents still in the area, The aim is to find those with pro-Ukrainian social media posts, or messages and images. The reports claim that these people will be arrested
The IAEA has found no evidence of ,‘indications of undeclared nuclear activities’, thus disputing the Russian allegations that Ukraine was making a ‘dirty bomb’. The agency was given full access to all the sites – The Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv, the Eastern Mining and Processing plant in Zhovti Kody, and the Production Association Pivdennyi Machine building plant in Dnipro. This included them taking away samples for testing.
Our technical and scientific evaluation of the results we have so far did not show any signs of undeclared nuclear activities and materials at these three locations. (Grossi, IAEA)
The G20 summit in Indonesia will take place soon, and Zelenskyy has stated that if the Russian Federation takes part, then Ukraine will abstain. Why? Because the international community is giving Russia legitimacy and a platform to speak whilst they are carrying out war crimes and attacking another sovereign state.
A G7 meeting was held in Germany for the Foreign Ministers today, where they have agreed a plan of action and a support package for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
There was another prisoner swap today, where 107 servicemen returned to Ukraine, which included Azovstal defenders and wounded soldiers.
Bulgaria has finally approved military aid to Ukraine, after months of resistance from pro-Russian political parties and resistance from the Bulgarian president. While it is late change of heart, it still shows support for Ukraine despite being in the eighth month of the war. This is also an indication that many believe that this war will continue for quite awhile, and the best way forward is for Ukraine to defeat Russia if the world wishes the war to end. The country will devise a plan within the next month in terms of what weapons to send.
Legendary TV personality, David Letterman has interviewed Zelenskyy who will appear as a guest on, ‘My Next Guest Needs No Introduction’.
Day 254 (4 November)
Jake Sullivan the National Security Adviser, made in unannounced visit to Ukraine and met with Zelenskyy and other ministers. He was there to reaffirm the American support, to assist Ukraine to defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity. An additional military aid package was announced of $400 million which includes the refurbishment of 250 HAWK surface to air missiles, refurbished T-72 tanks, 1100 Phoenix ghost drones, armoured boats, an armoured personnel carriers.
The aid package will of course include humanitarian assistance, and support for the reconstruction of Ukraine and the continued efforts to establish a special tribunal to hold Russia accountable for the alleged war crimes that are being documented.
The above visit is in contrast with what a high-profile Republican politician has been saying at a rally, that not one penny will go to Ukraine if the Republicans take power. This is obviously something that Putin would prefer, as he is aware that the US is the country with the most weapons and money to help Ukraine. If the US halted any assistance, then Ukraine could easily fall into Russian hands within days. The ultimate danger is war fatigue, where people can't see the bigger picture, in that Ukraine is fighting for democracy around the whole world. Whilst America is thousands of miles away from the action, the same scenario occurred during the Second World War until the country had no choice but to join in.
Greece has send a first shipment of armoured vehicles to Ukraine. This comes after an earlier announcement stating that Greece didn't have any spare weapons to send to Ukraine.
Whilst Putin has claimed the partial mobilisation has now ended, Russia has claimed that 318,000 men were drafted to fight against Ukraine, where 49,000 were already in Ukraine. For several months now, reports stated that Russia was willing to use convicts for military service, and Putin has now made this law even though prisoners have fought and died already on the front line. Many of the able bodied men fled Russia when the mobilisation was announced.
Morale is reportedly low in the Russian army, where deserters are shot or arrested, and ‘barrier troops’ are used to threaten their own comrades if they retreat.
Around 4.5 million Ukrainians have no power, as rolling blackouts try to ease the pressure on the energy infrastructures. The message is to conserve energy, and that is the same message in Europe.
Kherson is under a 24 hour curfew as the Russians expect the Ukrainian troops to advance and to take back Kherson.
I agree with President Zelenskyy, if Russia is permitted to attend the G20 summit, the international community WILL be giving Russia legitimacy and a platform to speak, while at the same time carrying out war crimes as the Russians attack Ukraine, a sovereign state.