Iran On The Brink Of Sanctions, While Russia Attempts To Evacuate Kherson
Putin implements marital law across parts of Russia and the annexed regions
The past 48 hours has seen Russia attack Ukraine with further missiles. In some regions of Ukraine there are daily blackouts, and Ukrainians have been requested to restrict the use of electricity, and not to use power between 7am to 11 pm.
In Kherson, Russia declared an evacuation for all the residents claiming that it wasn't safe for them to remain because the Ukrainian troops were about to infiltrate the borders. They have been images of people boarding boats allegedly to go to Russia, whereas many residents of Kherson are waiting for the Ukrainian troops to liberate them. The Russian propaganda states that it is issuing evacuation orders under the premise that those in Kherson are now Russians, whereas actually they are effectively Ukrainians who are waiting to be liberated.
The EU and US have jointly been investigating the Iranian drones that have been used by the Russians to attack Ukraine, with a view to imposing sanctions against Iran. After three days of talks, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the drones used or Iranian, despite Iran stating that they have not provided the weapons to Russia. The EU have announced a list of sanctions based on this evidence, and the US is expected to follow suit.
Day 238 (19 October)
The US, France, and UK called for an emergency meeting of the Security Council over the use of Iranian drones by Russia, stating it violates a 2015 resolution on the Iran nuclear deal. Obviously China and Russia were not invited to the emergency meeting, and Russia has responded by saying they will have to reassess how they work with the UN in future I will if the UN sends experts to inspect the drones in Ukraine. We take that to mean that they would consider leaving the UN.
NATO plans to send hundreds of signal jammers to Ukraine to help them with the drone attacks. I would say this is about seven months too late, and NATO is only just reacting now? I think we're past the point of signal jammers where real decisive action is needed before more lives all unnecessarily lost.
Ukraine has suffered 10 consecutive days of missile attacks from Russia that have targeted the energy infrastructure. More than 1,100 towns and settlements across to Ukraine have had no power as another humanitarian crisis rises. The ICRC has already suspended their operations in Ukraine, so who is going to help the Ukrainians who have become victims of this needless wa
The Estonian Parliament has declared Russia a terrorist regime and has condemned the illegal annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions. Hopefully, by adopting this statement, this will encourage other states to follow suit, and implement measures against Russia in accordance with the charters of states classified as terrorist regimes.
In occupied Kherson, residents have been asked to evacuate due to the Ukrainian troops advancing on the capital city. However, many residents are reluctant to leave because they are actually waiting for the Ukrainian troops to liberate them. This gives us an indication of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that the Russians know that the chances of offending the Ukrainians off are low, so they're hoping to bail out. Alternatively, it could mean that they want all the citizens to be out of the way when there is a bloody battle. They had been talked before of the Russians using residents as human shields, but now as Putin has declared them Russians, it's not a good luck to use your own people as human shields against an alleged enemy attack.
Ukrainians are saying that Russians are trying to deport those in Kherson to Russia illegally, and has told them to ignore the claims of evacuation to Russia at least. If they want to evacuate to say for parts of Ukraine than that probably as a wise move. Reports also claim that Putin is planning to establish a new capital of Kherson at Henichesk which is close to the Crimea peninsula. The Russian propaganda claims that the situation is dire, however on the ground, residents of Kherson do not seem to be worried as they wait to be liberated.
Back in Zaporizhzhia there are reports that 50 members of staff in the nuclear power plant have been detained. There has been no further report from the head of the IAEA who was supposed to have visited the plant to organise a rotation of staff that are observing the power plant.
Blackouts across Ukraine continue as Russia targets more power stations across the country. Many areas do not have water power or heat which makes the work of the emergency service is very difficult, as well as the fact that ICRC are no longer assisting in Ukraine.
Day 239 (20 October)
The EU has agreed to impose sanctions against some Iranian entities that have supplied the drones that were used by the Russians to attack Ukraine. These include three individuals and one entity and the EU is considering extending the sanctions to a further four entities.
At least 3000 Russian soldiers have contacted the hotline that Ukraine set up allowing them to surrender need to be taken as prisoners of war.
A Russian jet released a missile near an RAF aircraft near the Black Sea at the end of September. The incident took place in international airspace, where Russia claimed it was due to a technical malfunction. At the time, UK patrols were suspended but have since resumed but are escorted by a fighter jet. Although this action is not seen as escalation it does indicate that such actions can be misinterpreted as such.
The US has detained Russians who have been charged with sanctions evasion. They have been caught shipping U.S.-made military technology to Russian customers, including radio satellites and semiconductors, and use the German shipping company is a third-party to ship the goods.Yury Orekhov was arrested in Germany on 19 October, and accomplice Artem Uss was arrested in Italy. Orekhov’s companies were also sanctioned (Nord Deutsche Industrieanlagenbau GmBH, and Opus Energy Trading LLC. Evidence of such materials were found on the Ukrainian battlefields.
That's one of the problems with sanctions, in that Russia would find third-party means to acquire the materials and commodities they needed. Again, that's why it was imperative to stop Russians being able to travel as they were likely to have carried out transactions via third parties that would violate the sanctions or the purpose of the sanctions at least. We know that other countries may have turned a blind eye to carrying out business with Russia, and also facilitated transactions for them. That’s why I never felt sanctions worked because there was scope for circumventing them.
The Madagascan minister in the UN was fired for voting to support Ukraine in the recent UN resolution condemning the Russian annexation of partially occupied territories in Ukraine. Richard Randriamandrato was fired for his vote according to the president’s office.
Due to the destruction of electrical power stations across Ukraine, people have been asked to reduce their power consumption between 7 am to 11 pm.
Putin has decreed martial law across regions of Russia and the illegally annexed regions in Ukraine. These strict measures appear to be Draconian to prevent protests. The premise behind martial law is to strengthen public order and ensure public safety, by giving regional governors more power. That also means that they have more powers to arrest and detain people that may be considered a public nuisance. It also will restrict movement of vehicles, and allow the local governments to take control of communication centres and to use them for defence purposes. This could also be considered a move to prevent men from leaving Russia should there be a further mobilisation. In addition there will be restrictions on entering and exiting the regions and, and additional powers will be given to such entities as internal affairs the FSB, and the National Guard. What it looks like is Putin trying to take control of Russians as the Russian propaganda hasn't convinced everybody that the special military operation is going according to plan. Looking at some of the regulations, it appears to be old style Soviet rules again, which is basically but Putin wants.
I am not keeping up with your reports Ex Libris, but glimpsing your latest article, sense that direct involvement and escalation to global war could be near! Investigating Putin's decree imposing martial law in 4 "annexed" regions of Ukraine - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, after Russian battlefield defeats; which give additional power to authorities in Russian border regions. And reading Putin's justification- "We are working on solving very complex large-scale tasks to ensure security and protect the future of Russia." This decree explains the legitimising of moving or so-called 'rescuing' of Kherson civilians: ...allows for the residents of these territories to be moved to "safe zones". One social comment alluded to the possibility of guerrilla warfare North of Ukraine where it is foresty/swampy, and a lot of lakes, however, Russian aggression against millions of civilians is insane and contravenes blatantly international law.
'Russia is losing Kherson and will Blow the Hydro Dam', Jake Broe, 21st October, 2022. Russian mothers are blaming the Ukrainians for the 'war' and one called it a fascist country: the Russians have allowed Putin to stay in power for twenty years. Russians moving 10,000 civilians a day from Ukraian's Kherson region. Media calling it 'strategic retreats/rescue services' Russian military retreating from north bank to south bank across Dnipro River. Speculation: is Russia setting the stage for a false flag operation near the city of Kherson? Will Russia destroy the hydro electric power plant, releasing the reservoir and flooding to kill Ukrainian military forces? Russia desperate. Russia reallocates forces. "Russia wouldn't destroy a hydroelectric power plant; that is a war crime!" According to Jake , "Russia's entire military strategy at the moment is attacking power plants with nearly a third of Ukrainian power." He further states that Russia is being honest and open about targeting the Ukrainian electrical grid ; the 'game plan', to cause "an epidemic". Lose electricity so they can't have proper water sanitation recycling the water supply. This major strategy is to stop Ukrainians from having clean drinking water to drink and cook with. Jake said this is insane that the world's second most powerful military and they want to create an epidemic of water borne diseases and water borne pathogens! The Russian military has no expectations of defeating the Ukrainian military so they are targeting the civilian population! They want 40 million Ukrainian civilians to not have clean drinking water or heat this winter!