There are so many summits and talks each week it’s hard to keep track, and most of the time what was discussed has not been made public.
Many analysts expected Bakhmut to fall, mainly due to the presence of the Wagner mercenaries, and while Ukraine is reluctant to admit that Russia occupies Bakhmut, the reality is that the Ukrainian troops only control a small part of the city.
The Pope has said he is sending a representative to Kyiv to help with mediation, and a delegation of African countries has asked to visit Kyiv, mainly because they fear sanctions from the EU.
At the G7, the fighter jet coalition seems to be taking shape, and squadrons of F-16s will be delivered once the jets have been ‘donated’. France and Germany are still spearheading ‘security guarantees’ instead of NATO membership for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in Belgorod, a border city with Russia and Ukraine, Russian groups opposed to Putin have launched an attack on the city to liberate it from the Kremlin. However, the Kremlin blamed Kyiv, even though the Russian liberation groups flew their flags and publicly stated that they were behind the ‘attacks’. The Kremlin announced a counteroffensive, only to withdraw it less than 24 hours later.
Day 452 (21 May)
At the G7, Zelenskyy denies that Russia has occupied Bakhmut, however, Russians do occupy the majority of what is left of the city. The Wagner group have focused on the area, and now their resources are depleted.
Zelenskyy has proposed a peace summit ‘Summit of the Peace Formula’ in July when the war reaches 500 days, and has invited all countries who wish to participate in ending the war. He has proposed his ‘Peace Formula’ and hopes that the UN backs the proposals, with the vision for global democracy and security
During the G7 summit, all agreed a ceasefire was not the way to ending the war, which is one of the elements of the Chinese peace directive.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna has been asked by Pope Francis to coordinate a peace mission to help end the war in Ukraine. While there are good intentions, ultimately it is up to Ukraine to decide what is acceptable in terms of peace, and mixing religion and politics is never good.
A German company, Rheinmetall has proposed a joint venture with Ukraine to produce armoured vehicles. While it seems a good idea, one cannot help but think it is also for profit knowing that Ukraine is being given funding on a mass scale so it can defend itself. It would be much better if the company sold the vehicles at cost to Ukraine.
According to the head of Ukraine's delegation at the NATO, Parliamentary assembly, the assembly recognises the Russian crimes of aggression against Ukraine as genocide.
Day 453 (22 May)
The border city of Belgorod has come under fire from Russia and Ukraine, but this time the residents are being evacuated. The Kremlin has accused Kyiv of the attacks, but two groups called ‘Liberty of Russia Legion, and the Russian volunteer corps (RVC)’ have claimed responsibility for the attacks, as groups who are trying to overthrow Putin and to liberate Russia from the Kremlin.
The Russian claim it was the Ukrainians, but it was a Russian militia group based in Ukraine that appeared to cross the border to Grayvoron in Belgorod. The Kremlin announced a counteroffensive, but those plans were dropped less than 24 hours later as they would effectively be attacking Russian soil, and harm the evacuees that are leaving Belgorod.
The G7 have proposed an Israeli style of security agreement for Ukraine. However, unless the agreement specifies, it doesn’t mean the countries who sign the treaty are not bound by the agreement as we have seen. Many previous treaties that were supposed to have prevent war have failed.
Day 454 (23 May)
Evan Gershkovich, the detained Wall Street Journal journalist has had his detention extended to 30 August. It’s clear that he is being kept for exchanges in the future.
The Russian parliament is adopting a bill, permitting it to confiscate Russians with foreign passports, or declaring them invalid. This applies to military personnel in a bid to maximise the conscripts available to them.
The French foreign ministry has stated that they are willing to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. However, what does that mean? We know Macron is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, mainly because the chances of Article 5 being invoked are high which means that France will be one of the major countries financing the defence. Nothing short of NATO membership will deter Russia from invading Ukraine again.
Kuleba is on his second African tour to drum up support for the ‘Peace Formula’ and Black Sea Grain Initiative. He is in Morocco and also aims to garner support rather than the countries remain neutral or to abstain in UN votes.
Zelenskyy visited naval troops in Vuhledar and Maryinka in Donetsk on the Day of Naval Forces. He also announced the formation of a Marine Corp with new brigades.
Vladimir Kolokotsev, a Russian Interior minister visited Riyadh in Saudi Arabia even though he has been sanctioned. By permitting the visit, it sends a message that Saudi Arabia will not impose sanctions against Russia and will not take sides even after Zelenskyy visited in person.
In Belgorod, another group called, ‘Free Russia Legion’ has stated they have crossed the border to take control of the border villages. They claim their aim is to create a demilitarised zone, and during the attack an office of the FSB was hit and suffered damage.
In June, an African delegation, that includes the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Uganda and Zambia will visit Ukraine and Russia on what they describe as a peace mission. The delegation wishes to increase Ukrainian, grain shipments, and to suggest Russian fertilisers can be exported in greater quantities. Also on the agenda is a prisoner exchanges, but it seems that the visit would benefit Russia, and no country should be talking about prisoner swaps unless citizens from their countries are involved.
Orban of Hungary has said in an interview that he does not believe that Ukraine is capable of defeating Russia, and is opposed the round of funding to Ukraine. He claims that aid will only unable more deaths in the war.