Donbas ~ The Result Of Treaty Failures And Western Apathy As Britons Are Sentenced To Death
Thousands of deaths is proof that diplomacy doesn't always work, in particular with dictators
Eastern Europe had always been seen as oppressive by the West, but as society in the 80s and 90s became more commercial and people were able to travel more freely and cheaply (due in part to low cost airlines), those in the East wanted a slice of that freedom and democracy. I remember when the Berlin Wall came down, and as a child never really understood why Germany was divided. We are now in an era where people wouldn’t have even known that there was once a West and East Germany.
To help put things into context and to try and figure out how the world is suffering due to the battle for Donbas, we have to look at the recent history of the relations between the East and West. There have been a number of failed treaties that people like to quote parts of that suit them as justification for their position on the war in Ukraine.
In particular, Putin keeps quoting that NATO cannot expand because this was promised when the Cold War ended. However, the then Secretary of State (James Baker) gave Mikhail Gorbachev assurances on 9 February 1990, in a meeting that NATO would not expand beyond east of Germany, but Baker was in no position to make such an agreement or to offer such an assurance as he could not speak for NATO. Apparently, the NATO SG made a similar statement in a speech on 17 May (Brussels), but none of this was enshrined in writing. Therefore, there is no legal treaty or agreement preventing NATO from expanding, hence NATO expanding did not break any formal treaty or agreement.
We should also look at what Gorbachev said, and that he agreed that countries had the right to choose if they wished to join an alliance, and that Russia raised no objections arose when NATO did expand, which included former USSR states. There is a difference between comments made during discussions and negotiations, versus what is finally decided and written in a treaty and signed by all parties. The fact is Gorbachev said later on that had been no formal agreements or promises made on NATO expansion. The topic was on German Unification, and if Moscow was concerned about NATO expansion they did not insist on any agreements in writing. Gorbachev is still alive at the age of 92.
Deutsche Demokratische Republik, (DDR) was the German Democratic Republic that existed from 1949-1990, and was a Communist state until the Berlin Wall came down and the Cold War ended. German reunification happened on 3 October 1990, precipitated by the fall of the Berlin Wall on 9 November 1989. The wall came down after a gathering of protests because people wanted democracy where the Communist government was forced to loosen the restrictions to stop the protests.
The Cold War ended was in effect the ongoing power struggle between the US and USSR after the Second World War. Even when it came to an end on paper on 26 December 1991, many knew that the transition would take decades and that peace could only be maintained through cooperation and dialogue.
The USSR was dissolved and the former USSR states became sovereign states in 1991, although many Communists did not accept that these states wanted to be independent of Russian rule. That is what Putin and his followers believe, and while a minority continue with the same mindset, that is not what the majority want or believe. It is also this belief that has led to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and legally and technically, the Russian Federation has no claim on any sovereign states whether they were former USSR states or not. This is an undisputed fact.
NATO is not a threat, and is a peace and defensive alliance that seeks to promote security and to maintain defensive measures. The alliance should not a body for politicians to exert their biases and prejudices, but it seems that has been the case. Therefore, NATO should be implementing sufficient safeguards to prevent any such bias. It is clear from Angela Merkel’s recent comments on opposing Ukraine’s membership that she based the decision on personal judgment and biases, and not what the nation of Germany would have opted for. Sarkozy has made no comment and given his own woes, he probably doesn’t wish to draw attention to himself or dig a bigger hole.
This is a brief timeline of events leading up to the invasion of Ukraine. As you can see, there have been many failed diplomatic attempts to find a resolution to the Donbas situation, and even with mediators (who failed) and the independent OSCE, Russia has not honoured any of the agreements. It can be said that Ukraine carried on fighting, but if the aggressors fight, then you must fight back to defend yourself.
The news is that Russia will use foreign prisoners of war for propaganda purposes and have sentenced Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner to death. The war has been escalating slowly, and now it is time for the West to ‘act’ because lives are at stake. Russia is flagrantly ignoring the International laws that they circumvent fail to abide by.
They were charged with being foreign mercenaries carrying out terrorist offences, and for trying to disrupt the constitutional power. However, the sham court in the Donetsk People’s Republic is not recognised, except by Russia. All three will appeal the sentence, as a Moroccan man, Saadun Brahim was also sentenced at the same time. They will appeal the death sentences.
The UK has a duty now to act, and this is Russia punishing the UK for sending heavy weapons and long-range rocket systems to Ukraine.
March 1948 - Brussels Treaty. This was the how NATO began, and the original 5 signatories were the UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. The treaty was a defensive one, where should any of the countries be attacked the others would come to their aid. Later, after negotiations further countries were added and evolved to become NATO.
4 April 1949 -North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO formed in response to the USSR (under Stalin), who were pushing communism westwards by encouraging and supporting a communist coup in Czechoslovakia and was exerting influence in parts of West Germany. NATO was set up to indicate that there was a united front, and an attack on one country was an attack on all countries, and is a defensive alliance. The famous Article 5 states that each country will come to the aid of another if they are attacked.
The original signatories to the treaty were the US, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the UK. NATO has had 8 rounds of enlargement since it was established, and has maintained an open door policy for country that wishes to join under Article 10.
14 May 1955 - The USSR responded to the creation of NATO be establishing the Warsaw Pact (known as the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance) the Eastern Bloc version of a collective defensive alliance. The members were the Soviet Union, Albania, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and the German Democratic Republic. Most were client states of the USSR and most decisions came from Moscow, who also used the pact for political control when there were protests or riots.
9 November 1989 - Berlin Wall comes down.
3 October 1990 - German reunification.
15 February 1991 - The Visegrad Group of V4 was formed by the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. They aims are to support each other as they transition to democracy, and to hold talks with NATO and the EU with a view to joining both alliances.
1 July 1991 - Warsaw Pact is disbanded.
10 July 1991- 31 December 1999 - Boris Yeltsin is the first Russian President.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was founded 8 December 1991, given that nearly all states had declared independence from the USSR. The charter stated that all the states were independent and effectively meant the USSR was no more. Currently, it is made up Russia and their client states, however, Russia is the country that decides everything.
25 December 1991, Gorbachev announced his resignation of the presidency of the Soviet Union, and handed power over to Boris Yeltsin. He declared the USSR disbanded.
26 December 1991 - Cold War officially ends after three years where the spread of democratisation led to the fall of Communism. The USSR was dissolved and became 15 separate sovereign states; Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
On 18 August 1991, there was a coup against Gorbachev, and this further encouraged the USSR states to seek independence. Many had been seeking independence since 1989-1990, and once Lithuania announced they were leaving, others followed suit. As you can see, these are all new states who have needed time to adapt to democracy as the transition has not been easy with the threat of an invasion by the Russians.
Lithuania declared independence from the USSR on March 11, 1990.
Georgia declared independence from the USSR April 9, 1991.
Latvia declared independence from the USSR on August 21, 1991
Ukraine declared independence from the USSR on 24 August 1991 after a
referendum voted for independence later in December. Over 90% of voters backed this and 84% of the people had voted. Russia had been pushing to keep Ukraine in a restructured Soviet Union, but in the end the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was formed by Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
Belarus declared independence from the USSR on August 25, 1991.
Moldova declared independence from the USSR on 27 August 1991.
Estonia declared independence from the USSR August 20, 1991.
Azerbaijan declared independence from the USSR 30 August 1991,
Kyrgyzstan declared independence from the USSR 31 August 1991,
Uzbekistan declared independence from the USSR 31 August 1991.
Tajikistan declared independence from the USSR 9 September 1991.
Armenia declared independence from the USSR 21 September 1991.
Turkmenistan declared independence from the USSR 27 October 1991.
Kazakhstan declared independence from the USSR on December 16, 1991.
March 1992 - In the frozen conflict zone of Transnistria, this is a breakaway pro-Russian region that is in Moldova and shares a border with Ukraine. As Moldova is not a member of the EU or NATO, it is vulnerable to invasion from Russia.
1992 - Another frozen conflict zone, in Georgia where Russia has annexed South Ossetia
5 December1994 - Budapest Memorandum. The UK, US, and Russia pledged security assurances to Ukraine in return for them to give up their nuclear arsenal and give them to Russia to dismantle. The agreement included respecting Ukraine’s sovereign independence, its borders and to refrain from any threat or use of military force. Should Ukraine have come under attack by use of chemical weapons, the three signatories agreed to defend Ukraine. Obviously the agreement has failed, as Russia attacked Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine as a whole in 2022.
1994 - Russia tried to overthrow the Ichkerian government in Chechnya. This ended with a ceasefire in 1996 and a peace treaty in 1997. A second war broke out in 1997 and this is because the Chechens wanted independence. The conflict ended in 2017 and the area is now controlled by Russia
1997- Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland (three Warsaw Pact countries and Visegrad Group) invited to join NATO. They joined in 1999.
27 May 1997- The Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security is signed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and by the Russian Federation in Paris. This confirms that Russia and NATO are not enemies and are both committed to seeking peace and to build relations between Russia and Europe. This might be in writing and formal, however, Russia again has chosen to ignore this agreement.
May 2000 - Vilnius Group was formed by 10 countries with the united aim to join NATO. Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia were members.
29 March, 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO.
1 April 2009 - Albania and Croatia joined.
27 March 2020 - North Macedonia joined.
7 May 2000- 8 May 2008 - Vladimir Putin becomes the president of the Russian Federation.
29 March 2004 - NATO expansion from members of the Vilnius Group.
April 2008 - At the Bucharest Summit, Ukraine and Georgia apply for NATO membership, but Germany and France oppose the applications. Albania and Croatia are invited for ascension talks. Both joined NATO a year later. One might look at the situation and if Ukraine had been accepted, they would have joined in 2009 alongside the countries that applied at the same time.
7 August 2008 - Russia invades Georgia and annexes South Ossetia and Abkhazia (since 1992). NGOs and monitoring from external parties is not permitted, and because 20% of the country is occupied they cannot join NATO (as there is an ongoing conflict). Prior to the invasion, Georgia has satisfied the criteria for NATO membership and it is argued that they should have be allowed to join on their initial application. Both Georgia and Ukraine did not receive invites to ascension talks from NATO, and both have been invaded by Russia as a result.
1 April 2009 - further NATO expansion from Vilnius Group.
May 2009 -the EU (Poland and Sweden) sets up the Eastern Partnership (EaP) for former Soviet states that are not members of the EU. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are members, and allows members to share discussions on democracy, stability and cooperation. Belarus is currently suspended.
7 May 2012 - Vladimir Putin becomes the president of the Russian Federation.
21 November 2013- 22 February 2014- Euromaidan protests and the Revolution of Dignity. These protests began when the Ukraine government refused to sign an association agreement to join the EU, and chose to form closer ties with Russia. Repressive laws were enacted to try and control the protests. On 22 February 2014, President Viktor Yanukovych fled Ukraine and was ousted by parliament. He was a Putin puppet and has been convicted of High Treason as a traitor. At present, he is in exile in Russia.
20-22 February 2014 - Putin assists Yanukovych’s escape from Ukraine and plans to reintegrate Crimea into the Russian Federation. Pro-Russian protests take place.
27 February 2014 - Russia carries out military exercises which turns into the invasion and annexation of Crimea. Masked troops took over the parliament and strategic areas in Crimea. The world reacts by imposing sanctions against Russia but they had little effect and were extended until 2016 by most countries.
18 March 2014 - Russia has annexed Crimea, helped in part by Yanukovych and his supporters who gave Russia tactical information. It took less than a month, and that was because pro-Russians in Ukraine had betrayed their country.
April 2014 - After the Euromaidan protests, separatists and pro-Russians take control of part of Donetsk and Luhansk known as the Donbas region and fight the Ukrainian army, demanding to be self-governed and to be part of Russia. The areas that are not recognised are called the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). Russia recognised the republics in 2022, and this is where the current war is focused with Russia aiming to annex the region and to make it part of the Russian Federation. The pro-Russians have been found to carried out acts of treason during the war against Ukrainians, hence why a ceasefire will not solve the Donbas war.
5 September 2014 - The Minsk Protocol was drafted by the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with France (François Hollande) and Germany Angela Merkel) as mediators in an attempt to reach a ceasefire. The signatories included the Ukrainian President (Leonid Kuchma), the Russian ambassador in Ukraine ( Mikhail Zurabov) and the leaders of the DPR and LPR. It failed and led to Minsk II.
12 February 2015 - Minsk II. Due the failure of Minsk I, the agreement was that the Donbas republics would be integrated into Ukraine, but would have some autonomy. This favoured Russia, as it meant that the pro-Russians could install puppet governments and interfere with Ukrainian politics. France and Germany negotiated a plan prior to the talks, with step-by-step measures to try and reach a ceasefire, and implement some reforms in Ukraine. The calls for an immediate ceasefire on 15 February 2015 obviously failed, and Putin tried to delay the ceasefire to force troops in Debaltseve to surrender.
Minsk II failed even with the OSCE overseeing matters with the DPR saying ceasefire didn’t apply to them, and those who were fighting for Ukraine said they had a right to fight to liberate the country from Russian occupants. By 2018, none of the elements of Minsk II had been implemented.
There have been to date at least 29 ceasefire attempts with no success as the war in Donbas continues to the present day. The attendees at Minsk II were; Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president François Hollande, DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko, and LPR leader Igor Plotnitsky.
Talks were stalled between 2016-2019 when Zelenskyy became the President on 20 May 2019. Macron proposed a Normandy Format meeting with Putin, and one was scheduled with Germany in October. Further meetings were held 2 October 2015 (Paris), 19 October 2016 (Berlin), and 9 December 2019 (Paris).
20 May 2019 - Volodymyr Zelenskyy becomes the Ukrainian President.
27 March 2020 - NATO expands with North Macedonia.
February/March 2020 - January/February 2022 - Covid-19 pandemic with lockdowns across the world.
June 2021, Biden and Putin attempt to revisit Minsk II.
November 2021 - Russia releases confidential documents between France and Germany on the mediation of Minsk II.
26 January 2022 - Normandy Format meeting with Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany in Paris is held. Ukraine withdraws the law to reintegrate Crimea and Donbas into Ukraine as is was not part of Minsk II. Putin gives assurances that he will not invade Ukraine.
28 January 2022 -Putin and Macron are to speak as a follow-up from the 26 January discussions.
7 February 2022 - macron meets Putin in Moscow and refuses a Covid-19 blood test through fears of Russia obtaining his DNA.
10 February 2022 - Another Normandy Format meeting was held in Berlin with no resolution, and another was scheduled for March that never took place as Russia had already invaded Ukraine.
21 February 2022 - Russia recognises the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, after an appeal to Putin is made on 15 February. Thus, it nullifies the Minsk agreements.
24 February, Russia carries out military exercises and it turns into a live invasion of Ukraine.
18 April 2022 - the Battle of Donbas began and continues to the present day.
Day 106 (9 June)
Reports state there are 2,449 Azovstal soldiers being held in Russian occupied territories. There was an agreement that the soldiers should be held and separately and be used for prisoner exchanges.
The EU Parliament has urged leaders to grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status at the 23-24 Summit, and to consider Georgia later on.
Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, the British soldier who were fighting in Mariupol have been sentenced to death. This is appalling news as they are protected under international law. Russia claims they are mercenaries and therefore are not protected by law, and this is Russia using excuse to retaliate and to punish the West. Both have lived in Ukraine for a number of years and were serving as part of the Ukrainian army. This is time for the UK to intervene and quickly. As expected, they are being used for political propaganda.
Thank you, E.L., for the comprehensive timeline. I would like to know how many of the current politicians know it......
Shame on Angela Merkel! She grew up behind the Iron Curtain and knows better than most the dichotomy between what was East Germany and West Germany. I mentioned before I was stationed in West Berlin in the early to mid-80’s, and even then, as a clueless young adult who grew up in suburbia in the US could see how oppressive Russian control was. Living there then informed my world view: USSR = Evil Empire. That she vetoed anyone’s membership to NATO is beyond appalling.
Prayers go out to the British and Morrocan POW’s. That is what they are, Prisoners of War, NOT terrorists.
Thank you @EL for the succinct summary of treaties… what a tangled web!