Donbas And Mariupol ~ Destroyed By The Russians
Suggestions that occupied Kherson will be part of the Russian Federation resurface
While the world watches to see whether Elon Musk will buy Twitter, the war in Ukraine continues. Donbas and Mariupol have been virtually destroyed and will take decades to rebuild, and it is seen as a Russian victory even though the fighting continues. It’s all rather quiet on the Western Front for now as negotiations take place, but the message is clear—the only way to have a peaceful resolution is for Russia to be defeated and for them to leave Ukraine without any opportunity to return.
The focus is on prosecuting war crimes and gathering evidence, but we also know that evidence has been destroyed and Ukrainians are being held captive for propaganda purposes. The silence of Russia should not be underestimated as it is a time when they are regrouping and figuring out how they can promote a ‘win’ to the Russians.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical structure is being redefined and challenged with NATO expanding, the EU hoping to admit new members to give them some protection from acts of aggression, and where neutral countries accept that this no longer viable as a defensive measure with the recent events surrounding Russia. The UN has been pushed to act outside of their comfort zone which is to sit and make speeches and pass resolutions that are non-binding, and the limits of the ICC and ICJ were clear to see within the first few weeks of the conflict.
We have Turkey pushing to get some NATO weapons in exchange for not blocking Finland and Sweden’s applications to join the alliance, while France and Germany continue to stall the expansion of the EU, then there is Hungary claiming neutral status while being a member of both NATO and the EU, and China who we all know supports Russia but can’t say it for fear of the world imposing sanctions against them. The world is in a bit of a political mess, and Ukraine is in the middle of it all, yet all they want is the right to be an independent country and not to be attacked by the Russians.
The fate of the captured Ukrainians is of concern—will they be treated humanely, or used for propaganda? After only three months, this war has changed the world whether people wish to acknowledge this (because it hasn’t affected them directly as yet) and I fear that the worst is to come because Russia knows it has got away with so much already and no entity has actually stopped them, or has the power to do so. What do you do then? That is why a ceasefire is not a solution and the end of the conflict can only happen with the surrender of the Russian army.
Day 86 (20 May)
The Czech Republic are setting up a program called ‘Civil Society’ to assist those persecuted in Russia and Belarus to flee with emergency visas. Activists and journalists who speak out against the Russian army have been arrested or detained and this provides them with a means to escape.
Turkey has agreed to speak to Finland and Sweden regarding NATO membership but reiterates that he will not move on his objections to block they applications. Erdogan spoke to the Dutch today over the issue and will speak to the UK tomorrow.
Discussions over how Russian soldiers and the Russians can be prosecuted for war crimes have taken place on the international stage. There is a consensus that a special tribunal must be set up (Nuremberg style) as the current systems in place would allow Russians to evade justice. Russia withdrew from the process of joining the ICC in 2016, while they signed the Rome Treaty in 2000, they never actually ratified it. In 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, the ICC considered this under their jurisdiction as an armed conflict, which led to the order to withdraw from the ICC. Russia had previously been investigated in 2008 for the conflict in Georgia where South Ossetia was annexed. It appears that Russia was merely playing along in 2000, showing the West that they had changed and could be trusted when they had no intention of actually recognising the ICC. Therefore, Russia is not under the jurisdiction of the ICC, and while they can pursue a case they cannot arrest any individuals unless a state that recognises the ICC does so on their behalf. Technically, if the accused never leave Russia, they will never be prosecuted.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) handles disputes between states and Ukraine has filed a case against Russia. The problem is that the UN Security Council enforces any ruling, and as Russia is on the UN Security Council, they can veto any action. You can see that these bodies have failed to take into account for such an outcome where the aggressor can veto action against themselves. Therefore, reforms are necessary as the current systems contradict each other and are ineffective.
The domestic Ukrainian courts can prosecute the soldiers they capture, and at the very least they will admit that they were ordered to kill civilians which contradicts what the Kremlin says. In some way this can be used to tell the Russians that they have been lied to by the government, but some are so brainwashed they won’t believe it and will claim the soldier was coerced to confess.
Luhansk in the Donbas region has been heavily hit. A school in Severodonetsk, where 200 people were taking shelter was targeted by the Russians resulting in deaths and casualties.
In Kharkiv, a recently renovated House of Culture in Lozova was targeted by the Russians and destroyed, leaving a number of casualties so far.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder who is friends with Putin and who has ties with Russian energy companies has been stripped of some of his taxpayer funded perks. He will leave the board of directors of Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft, and is supposed to join the board of the Russian gas giant Gazprom in June. If Germany is to be taken seriously, then they need to impose sanctions against a former minister if they wish the world to trust them. Schröder and Putin were responsible for the Nord Stream gas deal in 2005 which bound Germany to Russia.
Russia (Gazprom) has halted gas supplies to Finland (Gasum) as expected, where Finland had already found a solution to the issue in advance. This comes at a time when Finland announced its intention to join NATO.
McDonalds is in the process of being sold to a local businessman who operated 25 McDonalds in Siberia. The arches and logos will go and be rebranded with a new menu, while McDonalds will retain the trademark rights in the country.
The Associated Press (AP) have released body cam footage from a Ukrainian medic who recorded what really happened in Mariupol as she saved the lives of many innocents injured. Her name is Taira (Julia Paevska) and she handed the AP her recordings so that the world could see the true horrors of the invasion. She treated Russian soldiers who were captured as they were prisoners of war, and now she has been captured by the Russians and has gone missing along with her team, and is being used by the Russians for propaganda.
(https://www.change.org/p/free-ukrainian-paramedic-julia-paevska-taira)
Maksim Paznyakow, a Belarusian activist who is a leader of a trade union group, has been jailed for 15 days for posting the Ukrainian flag on his Facebook page and encouraging people to support Ukraine. He is a leader of a trade union
The bid to safely evacuate the remaining soldier trapped in the Azovstal steelworks continues. It is believed they are part of the Azov battalion, who are considered neo-nazis, thus, they know their fate if they surrender to the Russians. They will be imprisoned and prosecuted and likely to be tortured and interrogated too. The statement below confirms they have stopped defending Mariupol on the orders of the government.
Day 86 of the defence of Mariupol. The higher military leadership have given an order to save lives and preserve the wellbeing of the servicemen of the garrison and cease defending the city. Despite heavy fighting, defending while being encircled and lack of resupplying, we kept reiterating the three conditions most important to us. Namely, civilians, wounded and those who have been killed in action. We managed to evacuate the civilians, the wounded received the necessary medical treatment and we managed to evacuate them to be swapped and returned to the Ukrainian-controlled territories. As for those fallen heroes, the process is ongoing. And I hope that in the nearest future the relatives and all of Ukraine will be able to bury them with honour. Glory to Ukraine.
Lt Col Denys Prokopenko
Leader of the Azov Regimen
Russia is planning new military bases to mirror the ones being set up by NATO,
The latest propaganda been fed to the Russian public is from a Russian senator Frants Klintsevich, who claims that the ‘special military operation’ has taken longer because the Ukrainian army is made up of trained Russian soldiers!