Day 99 Of The Illegal Invasion Of Ukraine
Ukraine is finally promised the heavy weapons they have requested for weeks
In the UK, it is the start of a long Bank Holiday to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth II, but the majority are not interested or in the mood to celebrate. The extra free Bank Holiday was given so that people could watch and celebrate, but most are taking advantage of the extra day to go on holiday tagged to the weekend.
The reality is that many people see the celebration as a waste of money, given that there are countless families who are struggling with rising food costs and energy bills—staples they need to survive. It isn’t difficult to see why those who are struggling would resent such an extravagant celebration when the monarch has lost touch with reality. Should the war continue and escalate, then the entire world will suffer and it will take years to recover, and after Covid-19, many are already struggling to survive.
Then there is the impending world war, where Russia is itching to ‘fight’ the West that it detests, and sees as an obstacle to it regaining territories and reuniting the USSR. The threat is real, and while the world is just beginning to see the effects of the war (in terms of energy supplies, and food prices rising) Ukraine has suffered with deaths and destruction. I sit here as I write up what has happened on the eve of the 100th day of the invasion, where the Jubilee celebrations seem out of place when people in Severodonetsk are dying, cannot be evacuated, and are hiding in shelters to survive.
I know some would say that I am being too serious about matters, and that Ukraine is so far away, that we can have sympathy for the plight of the Ukrainians, but should still drink and be merry at a street party. That is not me though, and while I accept that certain traditions have their place, a representative of the People should also be cognizant of the world at large, and also how their actions reflect on the Nation.
The illegal invasion of Ukraine has changed how other countries choose to defend themselves, it has made international alliances sit up and act, and in some cases showed that they need to revisit their mission statements and charters.
We cannot bring back to life those who have been murdered, or those who died to save their country, we can’t undo the horrors that people have endured under torture with lost limbs or rape, and we can’t resurrect ancient buildings either. Russia was and is trying to wipe out anything Ukrainian and any people who identify with being Ukrainian, and that is genocide. We can quibble about terminology but their acts have been immoral and illegal, and have caused irreparable harm. They have not liberated anything at all, as per their alleged intent. The world seems apprehensive in condemning them and stopping them, because this is a political game that Ukraine is caught up in. Yet, for the Ukrainians this is no game—this is a matter of survival.
That is why world leaders should be criticized for failing or hesitating to act. The Baltic states know that they are vulnerable, and even in Asia, people are learning how to use guns should they need to know how to defend themselves if China gets involved in the conflict. Countries have chosen their sides whether they have publicly declared it or not, and the ones of concern are Turkey, and Hungary who are members of either NATO or the EU, but who have ties with Putin. They have both sat on an uncomfortable fence, and have held the EU and NATO hostage over resolutions aligned to their personal agendas. They are a prime example of why alliances fail at times, and when there are inadequate procedures in place to address such conflicts.
Turkey will have to play a part as they oversee the Montreaux Convention, and control of the Black Sea would be necessary during a war. Turkey has cancelled all planned NATO drills in the area, and the country has not imposed sanctions against Russia either, claiming that they could not be a mediator if they had chosen to do so. I don’t think Turkey is an ideal mediator, and I doubt they would have imposed sanctions against Russia if they were part of the EU either. This could mean Russia has an advantage in naval warfare as we have seen, as they have already blocked the Black Sea. China and North Korea have also indicated that they support Russia as autocratic states would.
Russia controls the war, for they are the aggressors and Ukraine and the world are reacting to their actions. From a tactical perspective, it is hardly ideal to wait until you are attacked before you respond, but those are the rules of engagement, so one must be prepared. I don’t believe for a minute that Russia will go quietly, and if they retreat, it only means that they are regrouping and planning—just as they have done since 1991, as Putin played the West and lulled them into a false sense of security.
Day 99 (2 June)
The Western allies have revealed that they have been quietly assisting Ukraine in a defensive manner in the cyber world. This is often a means to gather intelligence (both sides do this) and shows support for Ukraine.
Ireland has formally recognised that Russia’s illegal invasions constitutes an Act of Genocide.
The UK is to send long-range rocket systems in a co-ordinated effort with the US who are sending medium-range systems. Although the US in particular has come under criticism that the requested weapons have been agreed late in the day, when they will be delivered has yet to be ascertained. Will they arrive in time to save Severodonetsk, that is 80% occupied by the Russians? Many will say that it is too late, for much of the territory has been destroyed.
Slovakia is to deliver eight self-propelled Zuzana 2 Howitzers to Ukraine, which can only help to reinforce their defences. Slovakia is a small country, so we should look at what has Italy or France sent?
Reports claim that the US is to sell Ukraine drones. Perhaps this news has been allowed to be released to see how Russia reacts, and whether they will negotiate or retreat. The latter is unlikely as they have pro-Russians on the ground assisting them.
The Estonia Prime Minister (Kaja Kallas) has reiterated how Russia negotiates; they push for the maximum they do not have and demand what they want, they do not offer anything in exchange except aggression and ultimatums, then knowing that the West will negotiate and appease for a quick solution, they end up getting something through threats that they did not have and were not entitled to.
This is an excellent interview where Kallas ‘schools’ the interviewer on facts when they claimed the West does not always honour their agreements (such as the US may have promised in 1990 that NATO would not be expanded to end the Cold War, but they could not make that promise on behalf of NATO), and states that Russian military exercises are dangerous, as they ended up as invasions of Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, and now Ukraine.
Therefore, when we hear that are Russian military exercises being carried out, then there should be concern as many of the conscripts who invaded Ukraine were told they were on a military exercise. Before they knew it, they were in a war without actually knowing it.
When the interviewer claims that Russia has a reason to be concerned about being attacked, Kallas reminded her that Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine is defending itself, and that 6% of Russian borders are with NATO countries, so the threat if any is low. The premise is that Russia feels threatened by Georgia, or Ukraine (as posed by the interviewer), and should have a say in stopping NATO expansion is ridiculous and Kallas reminds her that NATO is a defensive alliance and not one that attacks.
Kallas also reminds us that Russia came in and took Crimea and Donbas, and that they will continue to take piece by piece until they are stopped. Hence, why Russia must be stopped as Crimea and Donbas has not been returned to Ukraine yet.
Denmark has voted to join the EU Defence Policy after opting out, with 67% voting to join. This is obviously a shift due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where all nearby territories are having to rethink their defences and to bolster them where necessary.
The Baltic states in particular are concerned that Russia will retaliate given that the US, UK, and Germany have openly stated that they will supply Ukraine with rocket systems and heavy weapons. The world has changed whether it has directly affected people or not as yet, and the alliances are quietly hoping that World War Three does not start, but in the minds of military strategists, it already has. If we look back at the previous wars, allies were assisting from the fringes and indirectly, and then had no choice but to engage directly for an end to the war.
The belief is that by strengthening the world defences and to negotiate peace that this can be averted. That remains to be seen, for there are several actors (countries) who have their own agendas, and this might lead to inner conflicts within the allied resistance.
Zelenskyy addresses the Luxembourg parliament and tell them that Russia is occupying 20% of Ukraine.
Lviv and Kharkiv have been shelled again and have been attacked with missiles.
Reports claim that those in recently captured Mariupol who do not cooperate with the Russians are being imprisoned and executed. These include allegations that volunteers are being held in Olenivka prison, and others have been executed. A head of a village in the region has been sentenced to 10 years imprisonment and there is a rush to push all in Mariupol to switch to Russian passports.
Baykar, an Istanbul company who makes drones has given a Bayraktar TB2 drone free of charge to Ukraine. The people of Lithuania had gathered funds to buy a drone to help Ukraine, and the company has offered it free on the condition that the funds will be used for humanitarian aid.
"It is an illegal invasion so TB2 is helping the honourable people of Ukraine defend their country," Baykar executive Selcuk Bayraktar.
I think the Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, know only too well their world has changed and World War Three has commenced, whether the west wants to admit it or not.