Day 69 ~ Russia Ignores The Pope And Storms Mariupol
Macron talks to Putin AGAIN, and the UK donates more equipment
Day 69 (3 May)
Russia is barred from more sporting events. Russia cannot take part in the women’s Euro 2022, UEFA has stated Russian clubs cannot participate in the next season, and their bid to host Euro 2028 and 2032 is ineligible.
Russia has threatened the UK with nuclear weapons if the country continues to assist Ukraine.
Missiles have killed a number people in Odesa as the Russian escalate their attack on the port city in a bid to occupy it and create a land corridor to Europe.
The Mariupol situation continues as civilians are still trapped with a number of wounded soldiers.
The latest reports claim that Russia is storming the Azovstal steelworks despite civilians still trapped inside.
The Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are targets for regions to be annexed by Russia, and it is likely that there will be an attempt by the Russians to hold referendums to try and justify this.
The Pope, in an interview with Corriere della Sera, has stated that he contacted the Kremlin, 20 days after the invasion and has not heard back, and has offered to travel to Moscow to meet Putin, where again there has been no response. The Pope has also spoken to Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, but his words appeared to make no difference as the latter supports the Russian special military operation. In addition, the Pope has said he has spoken to Viktor Orban (Prime Minister) of Hungary and was no optimistic for peace after being told that Russia has a plan, and that it will be resolved on 9 May. With such a declaration, how can Hungary be trusted as a member of NATO and the EU when Orban has direct knowledge of Russian plans?
Macron is due to speak to Putin again today. While Macron believes it is his ‘duty’, surely this is blind arrogance? The UN Secretary General made no difference, nor did an offer to speak to the Pope.
The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Denmark, and in an address is urging Kyiv and Moscow to engage in peace talks and seeks a ceasefire in Ukraine. Foolishly, he asks for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the situation (like Macron, and Erdogan) but you can only talk when both parties wish to. Russia has responded with threats to the UK, and USA, and India has maintained a neutral position towards Russia and continues to trade with the country. India has their own agenda rather than what is best for democracy and the stability of the international community.
Putin has signed a new decree that allows Russians not to fulfil contractual obligations against sanctioned people and companies. These are deemed ‘unfriendly actions of certain foreign states and international organisations’ and is a retaliatory measure. That could mean halting the energy supplies where many countries have a contractual agreement with Russia.
The UK will donate 13 armoured vehicles that will assist with evacuations of civilians. The equipment has been requested by the Ukrainian government, and is part of the £300 million package that Boris Johnson has pledged to aid Ukraine. The package includes Brimstone anti-ship missiles and Stormer anti-aircraft systems, as well as drones and night vision devices.
Johnson, in his address to the Ukrainian parliament has stated that it was a mistake by the West for failing to assist Ukraine in 2014 when the Russians annexed Crimea. Many have been saying the same thing over the last few months, and it is crucial not to make the same mistake again. The consequences of a failure to act have led to the 2022 invasion, which could have been prevented.
@EL, your question "how can Hungary be trusted as a member of NATO and the EU when Orban has direct knowledge of Russian plans?” resonated with me. I found a 2019 article, “Can Turkey be Expelled from NATO? It’s Legally Possible, Whether or Not Politically Prudent,” on an online forum, Just Security, hosted by the New York University School of Law. The author, Aurel Sari, discusses the lack of suspension or expulsion provisions within the NATO charter. Interestingly, the UN Charter, the Statute of the Council of Europe , and the Treaty on EU do have such provisions.
In the draft NATO documents in 1948, Canada proposed a provision that would provide for suspension or expulsion to address the “coming into power of a communist-dominated government.” This was ultimately not included as the other countries resisted, thinking that the common shared values, principles, and resolve of the allies to “unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security” (preamble, North Atlantic Treaty) would suffice.
The only mechanism for removal then relies on the determination whether the member country’s behavior was a material breach under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. The author concludes:
"Should the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice.”
While it has a not been done before, it does sound possible, but not easy, to suspend or expel a country. Would NATO take this route? Sadly, I don’t think they will.
Even after His Holiness Pope Francis visited the Russian Ambassador to the Vatican in an effort to register his concerns and offered to go to Russia to meet Putin, this man of peace has been ignored. The Pope has also spoken to President Zelensky, but it would appear in speaking to the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church it is clear he, in blessing Putin's military machine, has become Putin's altar boy.