Day 385: US Drone Downed By Russian Jets A Reckless Act
Poland looks to providing Ukraine with MiG-29s in the next couple of months
The last couple of days have seen a sharp twist in relations between Russia and the rest of the world. The words ‘provocation’ and ‘escalation’ have been used with care as the incident of Russian jets intercepting a US drone left the world on edge—how would Russia explain this, and how would the US react?
Talk of fighter jets from allied countries is still a hot topic, with Poland pushing for jets to be delivered as soon as possible, while in Spain, training for Leopard 2 tanks has been completed for the first round of soldiers. Then, Ukraine talks of a naval alliance with the UK and the Netherlands. Are we preparing for a world war? As far as I am concerned, this was always on the cards with the UN and NATO trying to push back and to appease Russia without appearing to do so in order to avoid war spilling outside of Ukraine.
Add to this the current border situation in Ukraine and Belarus where billboards posted on each side indicate how each country feels about Russia. The situation is tense, and families are being wiped out in Bakhmut which the Russians want so that they can claim some kind of victory.
More cities are being destroyed leaving nothing but rubble. Mariyanka in Donetsk has no buildings left in the city. We must also remember the atrocities and deaths that happen each day that aren’t reported. Russians who rape women in front of their husbands and children, and men who fight for Ukrainian freedom and who sacrifice their lives. I read about a father and son who fought in Bakhmut and the father tried to protect his son—both sadly died to save Bakhmut and Ukraine. That is why it is inconsiderate of those in Bakhmut who do not evacuate, because they are killing their own people by putting them at risk by staying.
Day 384 (14 March)
The major news of the day was when 2 Russian Su-27 fighter jets collided with a US drone over the Black `sea during a routine mission. The drone’s transponders were switched off and had to abandon its mission and landed in international waters after the jets dumped fuel on the drone. Was it an accident or an act of provocation?
Our MQ- 9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ – 9. We calll on the Russians to conduct themselves professionally. (US official statement)
The incident occurred about 7 a.m. when the Russian jet hit the propellor of the drone, and prior to the collision the Russian jets dumped fuel several times on the drone and flew in front of it. This lasted about 30-40 minutes according the Americans. Russia has claimed that the drone was flying near the Crimean Peninsula towards the Russian border, but was at all times in international airspace. They also said there had been no contact with the drone.
The Russian ambassador (Anatoly Antonov ) in the US was summoned (17:00 local time) to explain the action, and the US was careful in their response, noting the incident as an unprofessional and reckless act (and environmentally unsound), rather than to claim it was a deliberate attack by Russia.
Details of the planned assassinations of Defence Minister (Oleksii Reznikov) and a spy chief (Kyrylo Budanov) were by a Russian military reconnaissance group was uncovered, and has led to the group leader being imprisoned for 12 years. Rewards of $100,000 were on offer by the Russian agents.
The Lithuanian Seimas has declared the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation, and that it is a threat to the security of the state. What this means is that the Wagner group cannot recruit from the country, and any citizen working for the Wagner group would be considered a terrorist and arrested and charged accordingly.
More corruption is being cleaned out in Ukraine. A former vice-rector in a medical institution was found guilty of high treason and sentenced to 15 years imprisonment. He collaborated with the Russians and carried out their order in Crimea in exchange of the the promise of becoming a deputy minister.
In another case, a colonel in the defence ministry was arrested for accepting a $9,000 bribe for assisting a Ukrainian assistant to avoid being registered for the military.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative continues, although Russia claims it does not object, yet stipulated they will only agree to 60 days after the current expiry date of 18 March 2023. The Russians have stalled the initiative with delays and inspections causing blockades and have now stated that their position will depend on factors such as sanctions being lifted from banks, and also how the Russian exports are faring (because of sanctions). In a nutshell, they are using another way to say they won’t play unless sanctions are lifted.
The Icelandic Prime Minister ( Katrín Jakobsdóttir) and Foreign Minister (Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir) visited Ukraine to discuss issues to be held during the Council of Europe summit (Summits of Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe. Fourth Summit (16-17 May 2023, Reykjavik, Iceland).
Romania is to build a plant to manufacture gunpowder and ammunition. A similar plant closed in 2004 and they imported supplies, but now there is a need to replenish stocks to assist in supplying Ukraine.
The ICC is pursuing Russia with two war crimes—abducting children illegally and deporting them to camps in Russia to be ‘re-educated’, and the targeting of civilian infrastructure. The problem is that these are ongoing crimes and the action may have been introduced to serve as a deterrent. However, these types of cases can take years before they are heard or if they serve any purpose other than to appear to seek justice. Russia does not recognise the court, so finding those responsible and putting them on trial is the biggest hurdle as the ICC can only investigate such crimes.
Poland could send MiG-29 jets within 6 weeks to Ukraine reports claim. The Polish press said if it happened it would not be a large number of jets. It seems Poland is trying to get the ball rolling in terms of support for Ukraine, just as the UK under Johnson got things going by supplying weapons so that other countries would have no excuse not to follow suit.
Russia is increasing the punishments to Russians who discredit the military or the special military operation. The fines are now up to 5 million rubles and 25 years in prison.
Hungary continues to be a concern, with Ukrainians worried about Hungary making territorial claims in Ukraine. The country as a member of NATO and the EU has to support Ukraine and not Russia, but at every given opportunity, the country has vetoed sanctions against Russia, and has not provided any assistance to Ukraine bar humanitarian aid.
The head of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, an orthodox monastery has stated that he and the monks will not vacate the premises as requested. The Ministry of Culture has issued a statement that they must leave by 29 March 2023 due to subversive actions taking place in the monastery.
The first round of soldiers and mechanics have completed training for Leoprad tanks in Spain. The training was condensed into approximately 5 weeks.
The Serbian economy minister (Rade Basta) has called for sanctions to be imposed against Russia. Serbia has been an ally of Russia and remains neutral in military terms, but seeks EU membership and supporting Russia these days will not help their application. There are mixed messages as Serbia claims it no longer is interested in EU membership, but this recent statement indicates that the economic stability and growth of the country might be necessary as a member of the EU and to forego the support for Russia.
The Core Group for the Special Tribunal for Russian crimes of aggression now has 32 countries working together as two more countries joined the group. The group will meet on 21-22 March in Strasbourg.
Day 385 (15 March)
More action in the sky as RAF and German aircraft intercept Russian aircraft as they patrol the Estonian airspace for NATO in joint mission. The IL-78 Midas Russian refuelling plane was flying between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad and had failed to identify itself to Estonian airspace. The RAF Typhoons redirected the Midas and then were directed to another aircraft —An-148 airliner that was also in the vicinity.
The Russians have responded the to drone incident over the Black Sea, and claimed it was an act of ‘provocation’ because the aircraft was flying too close to the Russian border.
The unacceptable activity of the US military in the close proximity to our borders is a cause for concern.
Some claim this is a test by the Russians to see how they react. It can’t have been accidental if the incident took place over 30-40 minutes, but the US do not wish to escalate tensions between the countries and appear content to write it off as a reckless act.
Both the Russians and the US are trying to recover the drone as it is in international waters. Obviously it belongs to the US, but the Russians appear to seek the wreckage to examine the drone. The US has stated that if the Russians succeed before they do in retrieving the drone, “their ability to export useful intelligence will be highly minimised (John Kirby, Department of Defence). The Russians have also claimed this is evidence that the US is hostile.
The Americans say all the time that they are not involved in the hostilities. This is another confirmation that they are directly taking part in these activities in the war. (Russian statement by Nikolai Patrushev , Russian Security Council Secretary)
In the US, Rick DeSantis has been invited to visit Ukraine in light of his comments that the war in Ukraine was a territorial dispute. AS DeSantis is ex-military and a former JAG lawyer, he would and should know the difference between a dispute and an act of war. Even fellow Republicans have criticised his remarks, and it is reported that he intends to run for President in 2024.
The Belarus and Ukrainian borders have been having their own battles of the billboards, where each side are stating their positions in the war. Th Belarusians have been supporting Russia, and with borders being open, security has been stepped up but remains a vulnerable target.
In the US, senators from both parties are urging F-16s to be sent to Ukraine.
A naval coalition appears to be taking place with the UK and the Netherlands joining forces to help Ukraine develop its fleet.
The 10th Ramstein meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group took place online to discuss long term support to Ukraine and how to coordinate the Leopard tanks that are being delivered.
A report claims that a Russian MiG-31K left the Machulishchy airfield carrying Kinzhal missiles that Ukraine does not have defences for.
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The Russians claim the drone was engaged in "unacceptable activity" by the U.S. after Putin justifies invading Ukraine - unbelievable.