Day 26~ Kyiv, Mariupol, and Odesa Under Attack
Sanctions aren't working (as expected) so what is next?
As the fight to control the southern corridor of Ukraine continues, what the West fail to understand is that should Mariupol and Odesa fall and be occupied by the Russians, it would create a Russian corridor to Europe. Should that happen, it will be a case of which country will Putin target next until he reaches the West that he despises?
Moldova, then Romania, perhaps Belarus will open the door for the Russians to Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania? Kaliningrad (a Russian enclave) is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, with Belarus less than 200km away. While Poland and Lithuania are both NATO countries, judging by the delayed reaction of NATO it is no wonder Poland and Lithuania have genuine concerns over the safety of the their countries. NATO has hardly been on the ball, and they may have to look out for themselves rather than to rely on NATO if there is a threat of an attack.
The brave reporters have been telling the stories of the victims of this invasion, where people have watched their loved ones die as they ran to a shelter, and a father who watched his daughter blown up in from of him, and his granddaughter who was in her arms. Children who are in hospitals, now orphans as they survived the blasts while they watched their parents die. These mental scars cannot be so easily erased, and yet NATO and the UN just shrug their shoulders and say that their hands are tied. Soldiers who have died to defend Ukraine are buried without their family because they can’t travel around the country safely. They sacrificed their lives for the future of others and the country, but how many more unnecessary sacrifices should be made when there is aid that is reluctant to intervene?
The world watches on as NATO make their excuses which quite frankly makes them look like cowards unwilling to engage unless they have to. Families are being wiped out, and people are suffering and they must wonder why the West doesn’t come to their aid for all their bleating about protecting democracy and people from unprovoked acts of war. They are sitting helplessly in their shelters not knowing what is going on, and expecting the West to do something.
We must wait until someone is killed on NATO territory, or if a building is targeted before NATO will act it seems. There is an awful of of talking going on, and suddenly countries like Slovenia, Poland, and Lithuania are being given the green light o deploy a defence line along the borders—I would say that is about two months late, for that is what they should have done at the start of the year. These are the actions of countries who know they are on the brink of war, and hope that their presence is a deterrent.
The peace negotiations are a sham, because you don’t drop missiles and issue ultimatums to surrender in the middles of peace talks. Again, this is about perception and Russia and their allies want to appear to look reasonable in the public eye. The West will pick up the pieces, but surely it is better to prevent the pieces from being broken in the first place? We may all know of family or friends who have been refugees or displaced through no fault of their own and it is a terrifying experience where you dig deep for courage and strength.
We’re nearly out of sanctions to impose on Russia, so what is the next step? Negotiations didn’t work before the invasion, they haven’t worked during the invasion, so the chances of a fair Treaty is unlikely. People want the bombings to stop (the main cause of deaths) but to live under Russian occupation as a compromise is unacceptable to the masses.
Day 26 (21 March)
The Russians issued an ultimatum for the Ukrainians to surrender Mariupol at 5am. They did not and stated they would fight until the last soldier. The deal was to lay down all arms and the Russians would open up evacuation corridors, but those corridors may have led to Russia.
Ukraine states that surrender is not an option, and will not accept Russian occupation in any talks.
The humanitarian crisis is dire in Mariupol, where those who are trapped cannot evacuate as Russians block the corridors, there is no humanitarian aid allowed in, bombings continue with bodies left on the streets and there is no food, water, or electricity. All the West will do is send humanitarian aid and some weapons.
Attacks on Odesa, as anticipated have begun.
A shopping centre in Podilskyi, Kyiv was attacked by missiles and has killed at least 8 people.
New Zealand has pledged further funds and support to Ukraine.
More meetings and discussions by world leaders will take place on the crisis, to discuss how they are all ‘responding’ . I think it’s safe to say we don’t need to decide or discuss if the Russian attack had validity, or if there is a humanitarian crisis because we all know the answers. There needs to be more actual action rather than leaders sitting around a table deciding on what to call things for the press release, and how to sound diplomatic and to avoid being blamed for anything negative. Biden will visit Poland on Friday, and Brussels on Wednesday for the NATO and European Council summits.
A curfew is in place in Kyiv from 8pm- 7am where all are advised to remain in shelters or at home.
Russian propaganda continues as Russians have no access to other news except what the Kremlin has permitted.
Facebook(Meta) and Instagram have been judged by a Moscow court to be extremist, and are banned in Russia. However, messenger is not affected by the ban.
The UK government have stated that the Russian Federation were behind hoax calls to members of the Cabinet in an attempt to discover information and to spread disinformation.
Afternoon, all. Just wanted to say that I am not ignoring our discussions, but ensuring that I take breathers on alternate days as a buffer against ongoing rage and frustration.
Ukraine has well and truly forced the West, which undoubtedly thought Ukraine would roll over in a week, to confront itself. By broadcasting its unwillingness to fight unless pushed to a wall, the West basically greenlit any amount of bad behaviour on Putin's part, as long as it was contained within non-NATO territory. If Ukraine had rolled over after a week of medieval barbarism, the West could have wrung its hands and waggled its fingers, but essentially after the fact.
When Putin found that instead of a swift victory in Ukraine, he'd dug himself into a hole, he knew that if he wanted to eke out something of a victory, the only way was to dig that hole deeper with increased barbarism - which, of course, the West enabled by not even letting him sweat for awhile wondering if the West would fight if he got barbarous enough. We told him right away he had nothing to fear militarily from NATO.
So Putin got his answer early on: he had limitless carte blanch inside Ukraine absent targeted nuclear weapons - I doubt the West will move in even if he uses chemical weapons, any more than they did in Syria - Obama's infamously empty "red line in the sand".
And, thus, the West IS responsible here for cutting the rabid wolf at the door all the slack he needs to blow the house down.
Ukraine's refusal to let the rabid wolf eat it is extremely inconvenient for NATO and the West. France and Germany are allegedly already trying to find a satisfactory "off ramp" for Putin. But what would that "off ramp" look like for Ukrainians, who have so embarrassed the West, and also left the West unable to voice that embarrassment without embarrassing itself even further?
Geopolitical lines will be redrawn for the West to salvage anything like its self-respect, along who is still willing to work with Russia and who isn't?
Does anyone think that Putin will accept military defeat in Ukraine? And go home and have a rethink?
This is what happens when you keep kicking cans down the road.
Cynicism is an ugly frame of mind, but realism is, well, real. I am finding it difficult these days to acknowledge realism but avoid cynicism (and this is true of the other matter that was the genesis for this entire site by our hardworking host).
So there it is. And as this is the point I always circle back to, I am trying to refrain from inflicting it on the good folk here more than once in 48 hours.
Thank you, EL, for giving me the space to do so. I am trying not to take too much advantage to vent because NATO won't listen to me, but folk here will. TC
According to the Associated Press there are no journalists left in Mariupol. Now Putin is de-Nazifying Ukraine by murdering a 96 year old Holocaust survivor. It would be interesting to hear how Israel responds to that horrifying news. Poland and Lithuania need that defence line along their borders; they know only too well the tyranny they lived under the oppressive Soviet regime.