No one has use the word escalation, but if we look carefully at the actions of the west, Ukraine, and Russia, we can see that the war has slowly been escalating, but nobody wishes to state that or admit to it. Instead, we hear the words ‘dirty bomb’ being used as propaganda by Russia, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been under threat for months, Russia stages a nuclear drill, and Ukrainian refugees have been told not to return to Ukraine until spring 2023, at the earliest as the infrastructure has been damaged by the Iranian drones and there will be insufficient heat and energy supplies for all the citizens.
There are more reports of Russian spies that have infiltrated organisations within NATO countries, and Belarus continues to support the Russian army are providing the troops to assist them. We have to look at the humanitarian crisis that is brewing, and that was predicted, and we know that the west were too afraid to intervene earlier this year that has led to the situation Ukraine is in. The fault lies in Russia's actions, but in truth we know that the response from the west could have been different, rather than apprehensive with a wait-and-see how it turns out attitude.
Day 245 (26 October)
Mercedes Benz and Ford motor companies have finally announced that they will be leaving the Russian markets. It appears that they waited to see if the war would be over within a few weeks or months, but after eight months they have conceded that trade with Russia is unlikely to resume. Ford has sold its stake to a Russian business, a Mercedes will sell its shares to a local investor. They join other car manufacturers such as Nissan, that left earlier this month, and Toyota and Renault
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The Ukrainian government has requested that Ukrainian refugees do not return to Ukraine until spring 2023 at the earliest. With winter approaching, and the energy infrastructure being damaged by the Russian attacks, anyone returning to Ukraine will struggle in terms of having sufficient energy supplies and heat, and blackouts across the country or the norm at present.
The Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu has been speaking to his counterparts in India and China with his Ukrainian dirty bomb accusation again in. Putin had a meeting with the heads of security services in the CIS countries, and repeated the propaganda narrative and accusation that Ukraine has been making a dirty bomb.
More spies in Norway have been apprehended. A university lecturer has been accused of being a Russian spy and has been detained for four weeks. Reports claim that the suspect posed as a Brazilian academic, but is actually Russian. He entered the country in 2021, and worked as an unpaid researcher in the University of Tromsø. The security services had concerns because he had access to information on how Norway’s security works. This is an old KGB tactic, where fake identities are created for deep cover, where they work as spies and also to recruit locals to assist them. Norway has become a main supplier of gas to European countries since the Russian sanctions, and the security services have been concerned with increased drone activity near oil and gas infrastructures.
The threat of Belarus becoming a part of the war increases every day. Ukraine has warned by the rules that if they do attack Ukraine then the Ukrainian army will respond. A Doctor who escaped Belarus has told the media that the hospital he worked at (Mozyr) was full of Russian soldiers who had been injured. Reports of this have been coming in since the start of the war, but the world has to decide how to view Belarus for treating injured Russian soldiers. Is it a humanitarian thing to do, or was it because Belarus is supporting Russia using Belarus as extension of Russia?
Reports claimed that Russia is attempting to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight in Ukraine. It has been claimed that Afghanistan’s National Army Commando Corp have received offers from Russian sources, probably from the Wagner group.
Ukraine has received two NASAMS air defence systems from the US. Raytheon delivered air defence systems two weeks ago, which are been installed today. I guess seven months late is better than never at all. So much damage could've been prevented and lives saved if Ukraine had been supplied these weapons when they were requested back in March 2022.
We should not forget that there are Russians that oppose the war, and risk imprisonment, torture, and perhaps even an accident that leads to death. Denis Skopin, is a professor at the University in Saint Petersburg, and had been fired for taking part in anti-war demonstrations. He had recently been released from jail where he had spent 10 days, and it seems that he has now been summoned to be drafted into the military. I guess that's why they let him go, to force him to fight in Ukraine.
The Polish Senate has designated the Russia as a terrorist regime. This follows a similar statement from Estonia, and Lithuania. There are countries in the west that are still apprehensive about using the terminology for fear it will lead to further escalation. The world recognises that two weeks of attacks by Russia is effectively a war crime and a terrorist action, because it is completely unprovoked. Ukraine has not attacked Russia, but is defending itself as best that it can.
There has been another prisoner swap where 10 Ukrainian personnel have been returned, and also the body of Joshua Alan Jones who was a US Army veteran, who had volunteered to fight for Ukraine.
The German president, Frank – Walter Steinmeier has stated that he was shot by the destruction he saw in Ukraine yesterday. He also stated that he did not consider that genuine negotiations between Russia and Ukraine can happen, and that a peace deal is highly unlikely. Steinmeier had been criticised in the past for having close relationships with Russia, hence why the visit to Ukraine had been delayed. He seems to speak from a place of understanding how Putin and the Kremlin work. While we all want peace deal, the reality is that it isn't possible with Putin at the helm
Russia carried out a nuclear deterrent drill, the second one this year which appears to support the propaganda claim that Ukraine is making a dirty bomb.
Ukraine has stated they are checking Chernobyl to see whether the Russians may have stolen some radioactive waste which could be used to make a dirty bomb.
As they still occupy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, there is a danger that they can use materials there to create a dirty bomb to attack Ukraine. The propaganda being spread by Russia is a false flag tactic, and a very dangerous one.
Bellingcat have discovered the identities of high ranking Russian officials who gave the order for the missile strikes against Ukraine. The investigation has taken six months, and includes an investigation on the Vinnytsia attack. Hopefully this information can be used at a special tribunal that needs to be set up for the numerous war crimes that Russia has committed.
At this point, I'm not optimistic about a peace deal and/or a halt in the hostilities while Putin is still breathing.