Slovakia seems to be the new Hungary, and are a concern for the security of Europe. Over the last few days they have stated that Ukraine must cede territory to Russia, and that Ukraine must compromise and give up Donbas and Crimea as Russia will not leave (Fico). In addition, Slovakia has re-opened cooperation channels between Russia and Belarus that had been suspended when the war broke out.
From these two actions alone, it seems that Slovakia has elected a pro-Kremlin government and whether Russia had interfered with the elections is something that should be considered. Both the statement and act of opening up channels of communication are contrary to both the EU and NATO positions that the allaince’s expect their members to hold. While Slovakia will meet with Ukraine to discuss humanitarian aid, it will no longer provide any military aid or support. It is also doubtful as to whether they would support Ukrainian membership of the EU and NATO, just like Hungary.
Exercise Steadfast Defender 2024, is the name of NATO military exercises to be held over the next few months, and the focus will be practising in the event that Article 5 will be triggered. The fact that this is taking place suggests that war is imminent, and several countries have said they are planning for a war against Russia in 3-5 years time, while others say in 20 years time. I believe the 3-5 year estimates are more realistic as Putin is 71 years old and it’s now or never for him.
Most countries now accept that Russia is not seeking a peaceful resolution and are preparing to defend themselves with advanced weapons and ammunition, and to have sufficiently trained army reserves. This was Ukraine’s problem in that they had insufficient military equipment and no army reserves that were trained.
Day 695 (19 Jan)
Ukraine is investing $466 million to construct reinforced border defences. The threat from Belarus and Russia will continue unless the borders are tightly defended although it will be difficult in areas of woodland and rivers.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also building defensive installations along their borders to deter military threats. The three countries signed an agreement to work together to reinforce the borders with Belarus and Russia to prevent any threats of invasions.
Rob Bauer, the chair of the NATO military committee has warned of a war with Russia within the next 20 years. Many believe that it is more likely to be between 3-7 years. He said civilians in NATO countries should be prepared for war.
Critics has claimed that the bilateral security agreement that Ukraine made with the UK are weak, and do not actually offer Ukraine any actual security guarantees. I would be inclined to agree, as the text only refers to a new invasion suggesting it would applicable only once this war is over.
Day 696 (20 Jan)
NATO will be holding the Steadfast Defence 2024 military exercises in order to practice in the event that Article 5 will be triggered. It the largest military exercise to take place with about 90,000 soldiers since the Cold War, and will last about 5 months from January into May. Sweden, even though it is not a member of NATO yet will join in the exercises. It could be suggested that NATO are preparing themselves for war. Russia has claimed that these actions are considered provocative.
Countries like Norway are investing in ammunition production, and have allocated $190 million for defence purposes. Other countries such as Finland, France, and the Netherlands have carried out similar moves, preparing themselves for war.
Fico of Slovakia has stated in an interview that he will visit Ukraine, but that Ukraine needs to compromise and cede land to Russia. He also stated that Russia will not leave the Donbas or Crimea, which is the opposite position that the EU and NATO hold, in that Russia territorial sovereignty must be recognised, which begs the question as to what these alliances will do when a member doesn’t adhere to the shared values.
Slovakia has reversed a decision made the previous government to suspend cooperation between Belarus and Russia that was in place when the war broke out in February 2022. The new Minister of Culture for Slovakia reversed the decision, and with Fico stating that Ukraine needs to cede land to Russia, is Slovakia a Ukrainian ally or not now?
Day 697 (21 Jan)
A gas explosion near St Petersburg had been carried out by a Ukrainian drone. The terminal in the Ust-Luga port owned by Novatek suspended operations, and supplied fuel for the Russian military.
In Donetsk, 28 civilians were killed, and 30 people were injured when a drone hit a market in Tekstlnyk, a Russian occupied area. No one has claimed responsibility to date, but the Russian blame the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army stated they were not responsible for the attack
Russia continued to shell towns in Donetsk, including Kurakhove and Maryinka in an attempt to occupy the entire region. These are still held by Ukraine as Russia seeks to occupy the whole of Donetsk.
Day 698 (22 Jan)
Donald Tusk, the new Prime Minister of Poland visited Kyiv and has opened up discussions on bilateral security guarantees, and other forms of cooperation including joint arms production.
The UK has given satellite images of North Korea shipping arms to Russia to the UN as an investigation into illegal arms trading is carried out.