Things are tense around the world with the recent arrest warrant issued by the ICC to detain Putin, timed with China’s Xi Jinping visiting Moscow at Putin’s invitation to discuss further co-operation and ties. On the same day, G7 member, Japan listed Ukraine. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited graves at Bucha and reaffirmed Japanese support for Ukraine.
Then there were Russian threats—the UK had announced they would be sending ammunition that would contain depleted uranium, and Russia responded if that were to happen, ‘There is no doubt this will end badly for London.’ (Lavrov).
The US has its own issues with reports that Trump, the former president is due to be arrested soon, and his supporters have staged protests around the country. It was believed that Trump had Russian businesses and support, which complicates the issues over the allegations of tampering with the elections.
The world is sadly on the precipice of instability across all the continents, and much of it is politically charged. Meanwhile, the drone and missile attacks continue to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, killing and injuring innocent people. The battle for Bakhmut continues, and while most of the children have been evacuated, 10 children and some residents remain.
Day 390 (20 March)
South Africa has confirmed they are aware of their ICC obligations (member of ICC and has ratified the Rome Statue), and that they must arrest Putin if he steps foot in South Africa. This causes a conflict, as South Africa has sought to have business ties with Russia, having abstained on UN resolutions condemning the Russian invasion. South Africa has also recently taken part in military drills with China and Russia, and has not imposed sanctions against Russia either.
All but 10 children have been evacuated from Bakhmut. They have been accompanied by at least one parent or guardian according to the authorities. I believe it should have been done much earlier, but one can’t force people to evacuate even when they know there is danger.
Xi Jinping arrived for a three day visit to Russia, where he and Putin greet each other as ‘dear friends’. One cannot state they are neutral if they call Putin a dear friend, while China’s ‘peace plan’ is discussed. Putin claims it can be the basis of peace if the West and Ukraine are ready to talk. The problem is the ‘plan’ does not crucially state that Russian troops must leave Ukraine, which is a basic condition of any peace talks. A ceasefire is not good enough, because attacks can resume within seconds.
The statements issued claim the countries have similar goals and are concerned about NATO actions in Asia, but also state they do not want a nuclear war.
A former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev has criticised the ICC and the issued arrest warrants, and has made threats against the court.
It's quite possible to envision, a scenario where a Russian ship could strategically strike The Hague court house with a hypersonic onyx missile.
Video footage of Putin touring Mariupol at night has been released by Russian state television, and allegedly it was done so because the damage to the city can’t be seen at night. The scenes are all staged as expected, and it appeared to be Putin trying to make a claim on Mariupol by saying he is not going to let annexed regions go without a fight
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Russia is opening a case against the ICC over Putin’s arrest warrant. They are targeting the prosecutors and judges involved; Karim, Khan, Tomoko Akane, Rosario Salvatore Aitala, and Sergio Gerardo Ugalde Godinez.
The EU has agreed to produce a million rounds of ammunition for Ukraine, where the European Defence Agency will oversee the production. The process will take several months, and Norway may also contribute to the scheme.
Serhiy Moskalenko, a Russian collaborator who helped set up torture chambers in Kherson was killed in a car incident.
More Leopard 2 tanks arrive in Ukraine. The latest delivery is from Norway who sent 8 tanks and 4 support vehicles.
Avdiivka is the next Russian target and could become the next Bakhmut as Russian surround the city.
Day 391 (21 March)
Japanese Prime Minster, Fumio Kishida arrived in Ukraine on an unnannonced visit for security reasons. He met with Zelenskyy and visited the graves in Bucha. He visited in the capacity as a G7 member and had been the only one not to have visited Ukraine since the conflict, and will invite Zelenskyy to participate in the next G7 summit in May which will be hosted by Japan in Hiroshima.
The visit was an important one for optics, to show the world that Japan is supporting Ukraine on the same day that China shows its support for Russia. Asia is getting drawn into the conflict, and all countries will have to pick a side eventually.
A large number of the Wagner recruits who were ex-convicts who were promised to be set free and their sentences quashed, are due to be released from their contracts soon. The deal was serve for 6 months and then be freed.
According to reports from customs, China has sold more than $12 million worth of drones and parts to Ukraine since the start of the invasion. That isn’t being neutral and indicates a willingness for China to supply weapons to Russia.
Hungary has vetoed the joint EU statement on Putin’s ICC arrest warrant. It is clear that Hungary supports Russia without stating so, and should not be a member of NATO or the EU as they clearly cannot be trusted.As many have said before, Hungary is a concern where they have access to NATO and EU information that could be used by the Russians.
Russia has threatened the UK with retaliation if they send Ukraine ammunition that contains depleted uranium. They claim it is radioactive and has a nuclear component, but it is a disinformation campaign—more Russian propaganda.
The British Army has used depleted uranium in its armour piercing shells for decades. Russia knows this but is deliberately trying to do is inform independent research by scientist from groups, such as the Royal Society has assessed that any impact of personal health and environment from the use of depleted uranium munitions is likely to be low. (MOD)
Russia has responded by saying that it would be violating international humanitarian law to send ammunition with depleted uranium to Ukraine, and if the UK did send ammunition that it would ‘end badly for London’ according to Lavrov.
Day 392 (22 March)
The China and Russia meetings have resulted in a signed joint declaration for economic cooperation and partnership, an agreement for a pipeline in Siberia to deliver gas from Russia to China, via Mongolia, there was an agreement never to unleash a nuclear war, discussions were made about the Aukus Pact, which is a defence agreement between Australia, the UK and US, and concerns over NATO's military and security presence in Asia
Putin used the press conference to accuse the west, mainly the UK of sending weapons with depleted uranium, stating that they would be forced to react.
The US will send older Abrams tanks to Ukraine to speed up the delivery times. 31 M1-A1 Abrams tanks will be sent as they can be delivered by autumn.
Neutral Switzerland is to provide $5.4 billion in aid to Ukraine, that is to be used for humanitarian purposes and for the restoration of Ukraine. Mainly the funds cannot be used for military purposes.
Zelenskyy has visited troops in Bakhmut, and has also visited injured soldiers in eastern Ukraine. It’s hard to say how will Bakhmut will go, but the Russians seems to be looking at another target they can occupy quickly instead.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General (Andriy Kostin) is in Strasbourg to meet with his EU counterparts from 33 states to discuss the establishment of a special tribunal to try Russia for alleged war crimes. Since the ICC has issued 2 arrest warrants, it makes the special tribunal more viable now.
I just saw that William, Prince of Wales visited the British and Polish troops in Poland, who are training to support the Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom. Some may say this visit is merely a photo op, but I'm sure it means a great deal to the troops. Good man Prince William!