Baltic Countries Close More Borders With Belarus
More military drills are planned in Belarus in conjunction with Russia
Summer is nearly over, so we know what that means—Russia will target energy infrastructure again in time for a cold winter. Many of the same stories are being run on the war, people are being evacuated (why they didn’t leave earlier is something people will question), more weapons are being manufactured in Russia, Ukraine and across Europe, sham trials and elections take place in occupied regions, Russia continues to target residential buildings, and Ukraine continues to attack Russian military depots and barracks.
The war has inevitably spread to Belarus and now the border countries are concerned and cannot take risks even if they are member of NATO. That doesn’t stop spies posing as refugees crossing over, and relaying information back to Russia.
Meanwhile, more Ukrainians die and the US had chosen not to send Ukraine ATACMS due to a possible conflict with China (the US protects Taiwan which China wants full control of) and they claim Ukraine doesn’t need them either. What we see is the procrastination of the US—a year ago they say no to aircraft, and now they have agreed to it. The US claimed it would escalate the war, and it took months before tanks were agreed too.
No one should delight in the delivery of weapons that will kill people, and irrespective of what side they are on, these people have families and their lives will be cut short and for what? The dreams of a dictator who wants the USSR back? Companies that entered Russia several decades ago have now left or sold up at a loss. It will be hard to see them return as Russia enters a period of instability. The truth is, both China and Russia cannot be trusted on a global scale, yet as they sit in the UN, other pretend that all is in hand when it is not. Recent drones have been dismantled to find that 67% of the components came from China and 17% from Hong Kong, indicating that China is assisting Russia in the war.
Day 551 (28 August)
Putin will not attend the G20 meeting in India on 9 September 2023, and Lavrov will represent him instead. Claims range from he is too busy with the war, to other suggestions that the ICC warrant for his arrest is something he cannot risk.
Ukraine liberates Robotyne in Zaporizhzia as the counteroffensive continues.
Robert Shonov, a Russian citizen who worked in the US embassy in Vladivostok for 20 years, had been arrested in May on espionage charges. The FSB confirmed his arrest and that 2 US diplomats had been summoned in relation to the charges, as it is claimed they instructed him to collate information on the special military operation. The arrest comes under a new law where ‘cooperation on a confidential basis with a foreign state, international, or foreign organisation to assist their activities clearly aimed against Russian security’ is considered a crime.
Ukraine will hold a Defence Industries Forum in autumn to strengthen defence cooperation in the region.
The US has opted not to send ATACMS to Ukraine citing concerns over potential conflicts with China, as well as claiming that Ukraine doesn’t need them. By doing so, they limit the defences of Ukraine and their ability to defeat Russia rather then to merely hold them back.
Day 552 (29 August)
The UN has recorded 9,511 civilian deaths during the war to date, but as we know that figure will be much higher due to the number of people who have been reported missing and who are either dead or have been imprisoned. Military deaths that have been recorded are estimated to be over 100,000, but the Ukrainian government have banned information on the numbers of deaths to be made public.
Joint military exercises with the CSTO countries is due to take place in September (Collective Security Treaty Organization—Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.) As a result, the bordering countries have closed their borders with Belarus.
Lithuania has 6 border crossings and has closed 2 already and are preparing to close 2 more( Lavoriskes and Raigardas). This is reduce the risk of potential provocations as Belarus admitted that the Russians entered Ukraine from Belarus from a military drill.
Russia is trying to recruit more soldiers with money. Salaries offered are said to be 2.7 times the national average, but money is no good when you are cannon fodder. The wages are said to be about $2040-2100 per month.
The largest Russian military exercise ZAPAD 23 is said to have been cancelled due to an insufficient number of soldiers. The JSE (joint strategic exercises) run every 2 years, but it appears that there is a lack of weapons as well as soldiers to carry out the exercise.
Day 553 (30 August)
Overnight, both sides launched drone attacks —Ukraine on Russian military targets and Russia attacked residential areas. Ukraine has said their defence systems intercepted most of the missiles and does not comment on any attacks on Russian soil. Russia claims that they intercepted all the drones that entered their territory.
The attack on Kyiv overnight was the biggest since spring this year, and there were 2 deaths to date who were reported to be security guards.
Pskov airport was hit and damaged Ilyushin military cargo planes in Russia.
Russia also claimed that they had targeted Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea, and destroyed 4 vessels with about 50 soldiers onboard.
Zelenskyy has said in an interview if the war was to extend into Russia, then he believes that the support from some of the allies may cease and that Ukraine would be alone. This is the problem, in that Ukraine is being offered conditional help and are limited in what they can do in order to defend themselves and also to defeat the Russians.
We have seen statements from the French, German, Indian and other governments that they seek to find a peaceful resolution, but do not advocate for Russia to be defeated. That is unrealistic because if we look back at Nazi Germany, that was the only way WWII could end, with the defeat of the Germany. By trying to pursue peace talks and appeasement, it led to other countries being occupied and millions of deaths. The war has already extended to Belarus, so if the war spreads to Belarus (as in Ukraine launches missiles there) how will the allies react for they are only actually afraid of Russia? We can say that while the US and other countries say that Ukraine must decide on peace talks, they also control the war by limiting support for Ukraine and control Ukraine in that way.