We enter a crucial stage of the war, where decisions made now will make history for either supporting Ukraine to victory, or failing them.
The Russians have taken control of all but one back road into Bakhmut, and the Ukrainians are left trying to defend themselves while being surrounded. Is a retreat sensible and to then return to oust the Russians? The problem now is that the allies are running out of ammunition to send to Ukraine, and production has begun to replenish stocks. In Bakhmut, it is not only a lack of ammunition, but a lack of trained soldiers as Russia uses the Wagner group and mobilised conscripts as cannon fodder.
Day 355 (13 February)
Credit Suisse has frozen $19 billion in Russia assets. The funds hopefully will be used to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Russian spy balloons have been spotted in Dnipropetrovsk. This comes after the US and Canada have taken down a series of spy balloons that have been spotted in their territories. The debris of some cannot be retrieved due to the remote locations, and other debris that has been recovered is being analysed. The authorities say they are sensors consistent with analysing and capturing information.
The first balloon was spotted on 4 February 2023, near Myrtle Beach, 10 February near Deadhorse, 11 February in Yukon, and 12 February near Lake Huron. The latter was taken down by a Sidewinder missile in an F-16 jet, but the first missile missed. To give you an idea of why the decision to take the down is a big one, each missile costs $400,000. The US and Canadian governments state the objects were removed for the safety of civil aviation and security reasons.
Iran has been reported to have smuggled in 18 long range drones into Russia, when a Russian delegation visited Tehran in November 2022. The reports claims that Mohajer-6 combat drones were transferred during the visit.
The Hungarian foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó visited Minsk, Belarus claiming to promote peace talks with Ukraine. However, he claimed Ukraine was the side who were being violent. A Russian delegation slipped into Minsk shortly after he arrived. What we can discern from this is that Hungary are playing both sides and are supporting Russia by supporting Belarus and where Russia is using Belarus as a meeting place. Calls for Hungary to be removed from NATO and the EU continue while the Hungarian government openly opposes EU sanctions, and silently supports Russia. The country should be suspended from both alliances until after the war has ended IMHO.
An ICRC volunteer has been arrested by the SBU for collaborating with the Russians in Luhansk. He was then given a role, in the Office of LPR Pension Fund’ and with his status as a volunteer was able to move around freely under cover.
Moldova has issued a warning that Russia is planning a coup d'état. The president Maia Sandu stated that intelligence suggested that Russian military would be disguised as civilians and take hostages and try and take control of government buildings.
Moldova is implementing measures to prevent such actions, but are aware of pro-Russian factions (Shor party) in the country who will be activated. What will the other Western countries do should this happen. This is why EU membership is necessary, and why NATO need to be less hesitant and provide deterrents to avoid such conflicts from arising.
Russia claims to have captured Krasna Hora, but Ukraine denies this, but it is a village on the outskirts of Bakhmut where the Ukrainians are struggling to hold their line. The are outnumbered and NATO are busy deciding what weapons they can spare or not. The real war is in Bakhmut and my thoughts go to the brave Ukrainian soldiers there because the odds are against them, and the UN, and NATO are not doing enough to remedy the situation. I fear that once it is over, the true cost of the bloody battle in Bakhmut will shock us all.
The Wagner group have executed another recruited ex-convict who surrendered to Ukraine. A graphic video was released where Dmitriy Yakushchenko was executed with a sledgehammer for ‘treachery’.
More on the Ukrainian corruption clean up. The former first deputy minister of health, Oleksandr Komarida has been charged with corruption for recommending the registration of a drug that had not been safely tested. He had been dismissed from his role on 8 February 2023.
Austria is remaining neutral and has stated it will not train Ukrainian soldiers to use the Leopard 2 tanks. It’s not a surprise, but it is hypocritical to visit Kyiv and express solidarity and then do nothing to help the situation.
In Russia, the former Deputy Chief at Main Directorate of Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Vladimir Makarov was found dead, with the police saying it was a suicide. Makarov was dismissed from his position in January 2023, and a sudden death happens to people who do not do what the Kremlin wants.
Reports claim that near Vuhledar, Russia may have lost an entire elite brigade—the 155th naval infantry is reported to have been destroyed near Donetsk.
Day 356 (14 February)
The Ramstein-9 is being held in NATO headquarters in Brussels. It is a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, where the allies will discuss distribution of weapons that will be supplied to Ukraine, the tank coalition, the ‘wings for freedom’ mission (combat aircraft) and also how to produce more ammunition as stocks are being depleted, as well as training programs for soldiers.
The obstacles for supplying combat aircraft are due to; training pilots to fly the aircraft, the cost of maintaining the equipment , some aircraft are not suitable for flying at low altitudes (to avoid Russian defences) and then the fear that Russia will consider it as escalation and that NATO is waging a war against Russia.
The UK will hold a minute silence at 11 am on 24 February 2023 to mark one year of the war in Ukraine.
Germany will restart production ammunition of Gepard guns that it supplied to Ukraine. NATO has called upon member countries to restock their supplies since Ukraine is using more weapons and the allied countries cannot keep up with the supply.
The US has said it cannot send long range missiles (Army Tactical Missile Systems) as they don’t have enough of them to spare!
In Poland, three Russian military aircraft were intercepted where two Dutch, F-35 fighters, intercepted the aircraft over Poland and escorted to them out of their airspace. Whether is was a provocation or to test NATO responses, the Russians are using aircraft as a means of reconnaissance knowing that Ukraine has a limited capacity in the air
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been stalled by Russia who has been preventing inspections in the Bosphorus for the third month. That means fewer ships are able to dock in Ukraine and export their grain. Basically, the Russians have found a way to sabotage the initiative and the UN and Turkey can’t do anything about it.
Moldova is vulnerable and closed its airspace for security reasons, but reopened it again several hours later. The Russian threat is becoming very real now.
The spy balloons which capture information are concerning, as I mentioned a couple of days ago. The first large one was launched by China but I believe Russia is responsible for the additional three.