Are We On The Brink Of World War III?

The Ukrainian and Russian conflict enters the second week, as the world tries to avoid another war.

No historian, in fact no journalist wants to write about World War III in real-time, but as we watch Ukrainians fight to retain their freedom against Russia, the question we must ask is whether anything could have been done to prevent this, or was war inevitable?

24 February 2022, was the day that Russian troops invaded Ukraine—will this be the day the history books record as the event that started World War III? In the early stages of a conflict, that determines whether a peaceful resolution is on the table. Many hoped this would be over within a few days. It is not, and negotiations seem to delay the inevitable.

28 June 1914, is the day we record as the beginning of the First World War, when Archduke Franz Ferdinand (heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne) was assassinated in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Political warfare followed, where neighbouring states became involved to support their allies. The war ended 11 November 1918, but many issues had not been fully resolved, and the risk of another war was high.

1 September 1939, is the day when the Second World War officially began—when Germany invaded Poland. The war ended on 2 September 1945, when Japan surrendered.

However, the world had been trying to prevent a war, and opted for appeasement with the Munich Agreement (30 September 1938), where Germany, France, Great Britain, and Italy permitted the German annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland on the condition that Hitler would not make any further advances. We know that Hitler had no intention of keeping to the agreement, and on 15 March 1939, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia.

Hitler could not be trusted, and Neville Chamberlain (the then Prime Minister of Great Britain) agreed that they would defend Poland if Germany invaded the country. Germany invaded Poland on 1 September, and the Soviet Union invaded Poland on 17 September, where the Polish troops assumed the Soviet troops has come to assist them, and then occupied them. Great Britain and France officially declared war—appeasement doesn’t work when you are negotiating with dictators who don’t actually wish to negotiate. It is part of a process, so that parties can say they tried to negotiate before they go to war. This is what we are seeing again with the Ukraine conflict.

With history, we learn lessons of what not to do again, and over the last 11 days the news we see live from Ukraine is like reading a history book in real time. Once Hitler had control of the annexed region in Czechoslovakia, did the other world leaders honestly believe that Hitler would stop seeking power? He probably thought it was an easy win, and there was nothing to stop him continuing his original plan.

History repeated itself, where on 20 February 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula. The area became known as the Republic of Crimea, and was under Russian control (a client state), but was still regarded as Ukrainian by the world at large. At the time, Ukraine was unstable with Viktor Yanukovych as the corrupt pro-Russian Prime Minister who was later found guilty of High Treason, and in fact aided the invasion against his own country.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/yanukovych-found-guilty-of-high-treason-developing.html

Many will ask how did the illegal annexation happen so quickly, and why didn’t anyone stop it? That was seven years ago now, and many knew that it was only a matter time before the Russian Federation would attempt another invasion, and wait for a weak moment to pounce. The signs that an invasion would take place were already there, and Putin was eager to push the buttons declaring that Ukraine must never join NATO (NATO must deny them membership) and the state must be demilitarized.

The democratic world has been united in supporting Ukraine to protect their sovereignty and freedom. Sanctions have been put in place again, but do they work as many rich Russians have assets elsewhere? People know the drill. Sanctions are part of the process where they are imposed to force the hostile party to halt, but in truth they rarely work. These tend to affect the masses who suffer through no fault of their own, and queues for food and banks happened as soon as the conflict began. People must sit patiently to see if the sanctions work before they proceed to the next step, but we all know this is simply going through the motions while we hear how many people have died in this conflict on a daily basis. The hands of the officials are tied by protocol, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but joined NATO's Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) as an Enhanced Opportunities Partner in June 2020. That at least opened the door and indicated that they had shared beliefs in maintaining peace in the world. The other partners are Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden. Notably, Georgia is a former Soviet Union state that is susceptible to invasion from Russia.

In the world of sports, football teams (FIFA/UEFA have been suspended all teams and clubs from tournaments; in Formula 1, Haas F1 Team announced that they had terminated the contract of Russian driver Nikita Mazepin and sponsor Uralkali, Russian and Belarusian gymnasts will be barred from international competitions from 8 March, and no doubt more sporting bodies will impose suspensions. This comes from the International Olympic Committee urging international bodies to ban competitors from Russian and Belarus (which is a pro-Russian client state that has aided Russia in the invasion), for the safety of all competitors.

Companies such as Paypal, Apple, Visa, and MasterCard have suspended their services in Russia, most of the car manufacturers have stopped production in Russian factories, Aeroflot (the national airline) has been banned in several countries, while many airlines have suspended services to the country as well, and it is a matter of time before all airlines cease to fly into Russian airspace. Even if the world is not at war, the world has been turned upside down in a short space of time.

Roman Abramovich, put Chelsea FC up for sale knowing that sanctions would affect the club—he knows that this situation is serious and won’t be over by the end of the month. High profile Russians have been careful not to comment on the conflict other than they hope for a speedy and peaceful resolution. No one wants to be a target, and with social media, words can spread quickly and can easily be misinterpreted.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (since April 2019) has made impassioned speeches to his People, that have given hope to Ukrainians to fight for freedom, and equally compelling ones requesting help from other states and bodies such as the EU and NATO. Countries have sent military aid, medical supplies, and humanitarian aid as soon as the conflict began, yet what Zelenskyy seeks and needs is the military support of the West.

No one wants to be the first to send their army there, for that would mean they have officially declared war. They would then be responsible for starting World War III. Some may question whether by providing weapons to Ukraine that those states are already involved, and have engaged in war indirectly.

Ask the people on the street what they think, and some think that the West should send their army in to help the Ukrainians immediately, however, there are protocols to be followed before that can happen. Military warfare has rules, and a sovereign state must also look after itself, for by choosing to support a side and becoming an ally, it places that state and their citizens in danger of being attacked. This is when hostages from those states are taken as bargaining tools, and when a state opts to support a foreign state, then must get approval from the government to do so.

The question many will ask is whether foreign states have a right to interfere in a domestic conflict that has been in existence for a number of years? Some will say they have a duty to help protect democratic states that are being invaded, but war is packed with political issues, and is about power. Calls for the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes carried out by Russia are made, but is that merely a threat to the Russians used as a deterrent? The ICC exists as a deterrent, but dictators are not afraid of the ICC (which is a slow process), and the crimes are being carried out in real-time and continue. Can you prosecute while the crime is taking place?

The next step after sanctions is negotiations, but as Putin wants the USSR back to how it was in 1991 when the Soviet Union was dissolved, that means successful negotiations are unlikely. Appeasement (like Czechoslovakia) will not work, and that is why holding Kyiv is key—it must not fall. How can you negotiate with an ideology that involves the taking of a state by force? Once he has one state (as we can see from Crimea), what will deter him from seeking to invade other former Soviet states?

Many Ukrainians had other plans this weekend after Covid-19 restrictions, where they did not expect to be defending their country, or running for their lives. As I said, watching the news is like reading a history book with women and children being evacuated, people making for the borders to escape, the men staying behind to fight, reporters risking their lives to record what is happening, people having to take shelter in bunkers, and then finding their homes have been destroyed.

Day 11 and a recap of what has happened since 24 February 2022. This is not intended to be a complete list of events, and some events will not be known until the conflict has ended. As in all fluid events, information cannot be guaranteed to be accurate in a war zone.

Day 1 (24 February). Ukrainians are given weapons so that they can defend themselves.

• Men between the ages of 18-60 must stay to defend the country, and women and children leave and head to the borders of Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Moldova.

• Snake Island on the outskirts is attacked by Russian naval ships. The guards do not surrender and are assumed dead as the soldiers tell the Russians to ‘Go F*** themselves’. Later it is revealed they are alive and were captured as they ran out of ammunition.

• Explosions occurred in Kyiv, Odessa, Donbas, and Kharkiv. Troops had landed in Mariupol, and Senkivka as Belarus aided the Russian invasion.

• The Russians took control of Chernobyl, an old nuclear plant. Pripya, near the Belarus border is also under Russian control. Both are ghost cities.

• Sanctions are immediately imposed by the West, and companies, one by one announce they will suspend services and trading in Russia.

• The UK and Canada had already sent Ukraine weapons, and stated they would be sending more. NATO members have also sent weapons,

Day 2. (25 February)

• Kyiv is heavily bombed as the Russians try to cut off electricity to the city.

• Plans for negotiations are discussed with a delegation to be sent to Belarus, offering the Ukrainian delegation safe passage.

• The EU impose sanctions, and other bodies including Swiss banks freeze the assets of Putin and other high profile Russians connected to him.

• Anti-war protests are held across Russia, where the authorities quickly moved to arrest people.

• Manchester United terminate Aeroflot sponsorship deal.

• Russia banned from Eurovision Song Contest.

• The Russian F1 race is cancelled.

• The UK bans Russian aircraft in UK airspace.

Day 3. (26 February)

• Ukrainians spend their weekend defending their country and learn how to make bombs called Molotov cocktails.

• Financial sanctions imposed by Swift.

• More people leave Ukraine and head for the border as refugees.

• Abramovich hands over the stewardship of Chelsea FC to the Trustees. A few days later (2 March) he announces he will sell Chelsea FC and the net profits will go to Ukrainian victims.

• In the recent negotiations, Putin has demanded that separatist states and Crimea in Ukraine be recognised as part of the Russian Federation, that Ukraine must be demilitarized, and states that Russia is trying to save Ukraine by denazifying the country, and NATO must deny membership to Ukraine and retreat from Eastern Europe.

Day 4. (27 February)

• Zelenskyy posts a video of himself walking around Kyiv, amid rumours he has fled or has been captured. He encourages all to keep fighting.

• Mykolaiv, a port city is attacked.

• The UN report casualties and deaths amid the heavy fighting across cities in Ukraine. The infrastructure has been severely damaged with no water and electricity. Queues to cross the border stretch for 10 miles.

• The US, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Germany send military aid to Ukraine. NATO border forces are put on alert to react if necessary.

• Russian closes its airspace to more countries, as more countries close their airspace to Russian aircraft.

• Zelenskyy addresses the European Parliament appealing for assistance.

• A gas pipeline in Kharkiv (second city in Ukraine) was blown up

Day 5. (28 February)

• Russia’s interest rate is doubled as the rouble falls in value

• Talks between Ukraine and Russia were not fruitful, as Putin has demanded that Ukraine be demilitarized, and Crimea to be recognized as part of the Russian Federation.

• NATO sends a Response Force to Romania for defence and as a deterrent.

Day 6. (1 March)

• The World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund prepare humanitarian funding for Ukraine.

• China abstains on a vote where the UN Security Council condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine.

• Russians protest against the war in Ukraine, and a number of them are detained.

• Google removes Russian state television from their search engine due to fears of propaganda.

• Government offices in Kharkiv, are attacked by missiles, killing at least 10 people. Freedom Square in Kyiv was bombed, and killed a number of civilians.

Day 7. (2 March)

• Russian soldiers are captured and are teenagers who stated they thought they were on a training exercise. The Ukrainian army release footage of the soldiers who are allowed to call their parents, and have stated that the parents may come to collect their children.

• Kherson, in the south is captured by the Russians.

• Belarus doubles its troops on the border of Ukraine to assist the Russian invasion.

• ExxonMobil will cease its operations and investments in Russia. This follows from the actions of BP and Shell.

• The US bans Russian aircraft in US airspace.

• There are calls for the International Criminal Court to investigate Russian war crimes. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icc-prosecutor-advance-team-has-left-begin-work-ukraine-investigation-2022-03-03/

Day 8. (3 March)

• Mariupol is attacked, as the key city is surrounded.

• Russian (rouble) currency falls and is considered ‘junk, and the credit rating falls to CCC.

• The Metropolitan Opera, based in New York, has dropped the Russian soprano, Anna Netrebko due to her vocal support of Putin, and a refusal to denounce his actions.

• The US imposes more sanctions against Russian oligarchs, and has banned them from entering the US.

• More companies around the world show solidarity with Ukraine, with donations, and messages asking for a peaceful resolution,

Day 9. (4 March)

• The US and EU have agreed to provide temporary residence to refugees.

• Negotiations take place between Russians and Ukrainians to allow evacuation corridors.

• The Russians attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and take control of it. There are fears of a radiation leak, which lead to the the possibility of a nuclear attack.

• People remain living in the subways as residential buildings are attacked.

• Ukraine meets with NATO, but they do not offer the protection needed and will not impose a no-fly zone as requested.

Day 10. (5 March)

• Russia announces a temporary ceasefire to allow a green corridor for civilians to evacuate.

• The ceasefire did not last long (three hours), as bombing continued and people were trapped and return to the subways to take shelter.

• Russian F1 driver Nikita Mazepin and sponsor Uralkali have their contracts terminated by the Haas F1 team.

• People in Kherson march in protest against the Russian occupiers.

• Samsung and PayPal suspend their activities in Russian.

Day 11. (6 March)

• The evacuation of Mariupol is halted as shelling continues.

• The people in Volnovakha are unable to evacuate safely.

• Zelensky requests that NATO impose a no-fly zone, but this is denied as it will mean they are engaging in the conflict. This means if a Russian aircraft flew into the no-fly zone, NATO troops would have to attack, which could escalate into war with Russia. Putin has stated if there was a no-fly zone he would deem it an act of war by NATO.

• The US Secretary of State (Blinken) states that the US will support NATO if they choose to send in fighter jets. That does not mean that NATO or other NATO members have agreed to do so.

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