An Attack Near The Polish Border

Day 18, are the Russians firing warning shots at NATO?

Words of support continue to back Ukraine, but will words lead to a ceasefire when Putin doesn’t want to listen? While the West assists on the fringes, by giving Ukraine weapons, they are technically helping them to fight the Russians in all but ground troops, and now those convoys will be Russian targets. How will the West respond when their donations to Ukraine are destroyed?

The key story today is the missile attack at the Yavoriv (in Lviv) military base that is 6 miles from the Polish border. Was it a warning shot to NATO to keep out? More than 145 people were injured and to date, 35 have died as a result of the attack. Can NATO really sit back and wait until the attacks get closer to NATO borders? Such an attack would not have been unexpected, and the same goes for cities near the Belarus border.

The tragic death of a Brent Renaud, a US filmmaker and journalist in a targeted attack in Irpin will have the US discussing what measure they need to take in Ukraine. As I said before, all the brave reporters out in Russia and Ukraine are risking their lives to tell the world what is really happening during this conflict. He was working on a TIME Studios project, and was reporting on the atrocities that the Russians wish to censor, and to film the plight of the refugees. An image of his body, and his ID was posted on social media. I doubt there was malice in the posting by the Kyiv police, but to tell the West that the Russians have no regard for the laws.

This is Putin’s war and not a Russian war, as Putin doesn’t care what the Russians think or want. How do we separate Putin and the Russian Army from the Russians who do not support the war? The latter are the ones who are suffering from the sanctions, so both the Ukrainians and the Russians are suffering because of what Putin wants. Do people expect the Russians to retreat? As much as we would like them to, I doubt that will happen unless they are ordered to by Putin.

Day 18 (13 March)

• The Russians state that any western countries delivering military arms to the Ukrainians will be considered a target, as in they will bomb them. The Russians consider this as the West participating in the war, therefore, there is no half in scenario—either you help Ukraine or you don’t.

  

• Russian prisoners of war have been made to give public statements to the world in a press conference, in contravention of the Geneva Convention Article 13. They have apologized for attacking Ukraine and urge other Russians to stop fighting, however, this was an unwise move by Ukraine, because they have used the prisoners for publicity and they may have been coerced in what they said. Others may consider it propaganda, and the Ukrainians may have felt they had no choice because the West are not assisting them in the most proactive way possible to end the conflict. Forcing prisoners to be used for ‘public curiosity’ was technically a breach of the convention.

  

• Moldova, like Poland is struggling to help the refugees that have sought sanctuary in their country. As one of the poorest countries they are concerned about the long term effect it could have on the country, and they are also vulnerable to attack from the Russians.

• The mayor of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matveyev has been abducted A new mayor of Melitopol has been installed. To date, two Ukrainian mayors have been abducted by the Russians.

• Russians have escalated their attacks by firing missiles 6 miles from the Polish border at Yavoriv in Lviv, at the IPSC (International Peacekeeping Security Centre), a training centre for international and Ukrainian troops. Poland is in the EU and a member of NATO. Reports state that more that 30 rockets were fired at the base.

• The death toll from the attack in the military base is 35, with 134 so far injured. The Russians claim that they attacked the base because it contained Western military arms and foreign troops.

• Brent Renaud, a US journalist was killed in Irpin outside Kyiv. His colleague Juan Arredondo, was injured and taken to hospital and it is believed there are others who were injured. This is the first shooting of a foreign reporter who has died, and the US have stated they will take appropriate action. Reports say that the Russians had targeted them.

• The media are now banned from Irpin for their own safety and that of the emergency services. The mayor (Oleksandr Markushyn) has advised the media and civilians to refrain from posting information about sightings of the military, their weapons or their location as it will compromise the safety of the operations in place.

• Train drivers are aiding the evacuation of Ukrainians by transporting then across to key areas where they can then leave the country. With roads impossible to travel on as they are targets for missiles, trains are the only way to travel quickly and safely although the Russians are still targeting them.

• A train was attacked near Busyn, where the conductor was killed and others were injured.

• Communications have been cut off from the town of Ivankiv for 8 days now, and it is believed to be occupied by the Russians and is being used as a base to attack Kyiv. It is in-between the border of Belarus and Kyiv. No civilians have been allowed to leave.

• There are more protests in the occupied city of Kherson, where reports claim that the Russians intend to make the city a separatist state like Donetsk and Luhansk, and install a puppet administration.

• Reporters (13 have been reported) are among those who have been detained at anti-war protests in Russia. All were wearing their press credentials which were ignored. This is Russian censorship, where more than 800 people have been detained.

• People in Belarus are leaving as they suffer the consequences of sanctions by the West. They are fleeing to nearby countries such as Armenia and Turkey, which has led to a rise in the price of flights and accommodation.

• Russians are leaving to nearby countries like Georgia, because of the sanctions they have few options to get out of the country while they can. Many fear repression, and do not wish to fight a war that do not support, but to speak out and to support Ukraine could mean incarceration. They are keen to state that this is Putin’s war and not a Russian war. While some manage to escape, they are accused of running rather than holding their government to account. Both citizens of Russia and Belarus fear border closures, and compulsory military service and are leaving now rather than to risk getting stuck.

• However, in neighbouring countries, hosts are reluctant to allow Belarusians and Russians to rent from them fearing that they might be spies, and will bring trouble to their door. As a result, many are having to hide their nationality for fear of discrimination.

• Georgia is struggling with the influx of Russians arriving, and that Putin may invade them claiming he needs to save the Russians in Georgia. As Russia has annexed a fifth of Georgia (parts of Abkhazia and former South Ossetian) which is under military occupation, they have the resources to mount an invasion like Ukraine. They are not members of NATO but have a partnership like Ukraine, and are not a member of the EU, thus are vulnerable with so many Russians choosing to reside in their country. Georgia applied for membership of the EU on 3 March, a few days after the Ukrainian invasion.

• Belarusian doctors have allegedly been threatened if they are found to have discussed or passed on information about Russian deaths or casualties.

• The Red Cross have appealed for both sides to end the conflict due to the humanitarian crisis. I find such statements unrealistic, for Ukraine did nothing to warrant an attack, and Putin doesn’t care about bodies littered everywhere, so the words of the Red Cross mean nothing to Putin. You cannot have an agreement when the aggressor doe not wish to discuss matters. Of course Ukraine wishes to have a peaceful resolution, but if that means surrendering and allowing the Russians to occupy towns and cities, it will not prevent further attacks in the future.