A Stalemate ~ The West Backs Ukraine, While Russia Increases Troop Numbers
Orban defies NATO and EU rules and allows Russia to expand their business in Hungary.
In the last 48 hours, there appears to be a stalemate where all sides are weighing up the next move, trying to anticipate what the other side will do first. Putin is lining up more troops, and legally conscripts must train for four months before they are allowed out on the front line. The rules have been bent over the last few months, but there is a major recruitment drive for more soldiers in Russia. Many of the young men have fled Russia already, keen to make a new life for themselves elsewhere.
The West on the other hand used Independence Day to send a message to Putin and Russia, that they were not going to give in to war fatigue, and that they will stand next to Ukraine until they win the war and take back their land.
After the recent NATO data breach, we must consider that some information has been passed to the Russians, and that is a data breach the public are aware of. Time is ticking if NATO want to nip this war in the bud before it gets out of hand. Unfortunately, they can’t bring back the dead who were waiting for action.
Day 183 (25 August)
Gitanas Nauseda, the Lithuanian president has reiterated that Ukraine is fighting for democracy and that all countries should support them because of this. He also warned that Russia will not stop at Ukraine, and Lithuania is high on the list of Russia’s next targets
On Independence Day, at least 58 settlements were attacked in Ukraine.
In Zaporizhzia, further concerns grow as some reactors were cut off, it is reported due to shelling in the area. The concern is that Russia is trying to cut off the supply and divert the plant onto a Russian network. The visit by the IAEA is still be negotiated.
The situation in the area is unclear with conflicting reports, but there are reports stating that the six reactors were switched off, where some state that the ones that were switched off are back online. The Russians know the worth of occupying and controlling the plant and will do what they can to retain control.
Citibank has chosen to close all their Russian operations after trying to sell the businesses unsuccessfully. This will cost the company about £140 million over the next year, and will affect 2,300 members of staff.
Putin passes a law to allow an additional 10% of army personnel to be added to the troops already in place.
Canada has moved some of their aircraft from Kuwait to the UK in order to assist in the transportation of military aid. This kind of move also signals other countries choosing to keep their equipment on standby so they can be used at short notice.
Another traitor has been given a 12 year prison sentence in Ukraine. The former official had been paid between $2,000 to $15,000 each time they handed over information on Ukraine’s defences, data on key personnel to the FSB.
Kyiv changes the names of 95 streets and squares that have Russian connections. A street called Londonska used to be called Piterska Street (St. Petersburg).
The UK has offered to help rebuild and restore the Ukrainian transport system, and although it is not possible to do this while the war is on, they can make plans for when the time arrives.
Russia continues to use cluster munitions in civilian areas, and is the only place in the world where they are used. These are bombs that eject smaller munitions in a cluster after they hit the ground.
Russia has set up at least 21 filtration centres dedicated to detaining and interrogating Ukrainians, and to process prisoners of war.
Day 184 (26 August)
The Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant is now working again after some reactors were switched off. The area is still unstable as shelling continues around the area.
The area has been used as a military base by the Russians and satellite images show the Russians trying to conceal vehicles under pipelines. While the Russians remain in the plant, there is always the threat of a nuclear incident.
NATO is assessing a security data breach where hackers appeared to have infiltrated classified documents and have been selling them on the dark web. They are selling data which includes blueprints of the weapons being used in Ukraine. The breach took place in Italy from a compromised external hard drive and involves MBDA missile systems and some of their suppliers. So far, an unknown buyer (expected to be Russian) has bought 80G of data for about £18,000 but Bitcoin has been used to carry out the transaction.
A sample was obtained by journalists that were marked ‘NATO CONFIDENTIAL’ and NATO RESTRICTED. The data is being advertised as ‘information about employees who worked on closed projects and presentations and design documents, with correspondence with other companies’.
COSMIC TOP SECRET ~ Unauthorised disclosure would cause exceptionally grave damage to NATO.
NATO SECRET ~ Unauthorised disclosure would cause serious damage to NATO.
NATO CONFIDENTIAL ~ Unauthorised disclosure would be damaging to NATO interests.
NATO RESTRICTED ~ Unauthorised disclosure would be disadvantageous to the interests of NATO.
Ukraine plans to evacuate people from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzia, and Mykolaiv, and they will be provided with free housing and support (including heating) over winter. This has probably been planned for a while as it is difficult to relocate entire regions, and it is because they expect the war to get ‘ugly’ and they do not wish civilians to have to suffer. Power lines are likely to be cut, supplies of water will be limited and it is necessary to evacuate people in order for Ukraine to liberate occupied areas.
In Russia, state television is not allowed to use the word explosion and use the world clap/pop (лопок )which is written the same as cotton. That is why Ukrainians make fun of the word by displaying cotton plants (Ukrainian бавовна). The UK Embassy has made reference to having a cotton plant and liking them, possibly referring to the explosions in Crimea.
More issues for Scholz and Germany as the left wingers of the party are calling Scholz to stop sending weapons to Ukraine and to negotiate with Putin. Scholz has previously been criticised for stalling on the provision of weapons to Ukraine, but it seems that the old Communists are still trying to force their agendas.
I have said before that Hungary should NOT be trusted. After refusing to supply military aid to Ukraine, blocking sanctions against Russia, the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority has now has issued a permit to allow Russia (Rosatom) to expand the Paks nuclear plant.
Obviously this is the very opposite of imposing sanctions against Russia, but what will the EU and NATO do? Hungary is testing the water to see what action they will take and is daring them to do so. In effect, Hungary is a mini-Belarus that is a member of NATO and the EU. Both organisations should be concerned IMHO
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Another Russian soldier has been identified and charged in absentia for war crimes. Nikolai Sokovikov has been named, and although the authorities cannot locate him at present, he will be added to the wanted list.
With 58 settlements attacked on Independence Day, I would say the war is already out of hand, while NATO just listens to the clock ticking. I believe the Lithuanian President is correct, he knows Lithuania is high on Putin's target list.