It’s hard to believe that the war in Ukraine is entering its second year, and both Ukraine and Russia have military plans for the next few years, and even allied countries such as the US accept that the war will continue into 2025.
I recall when the few weeks before the actual invasion of Ukraine when the world was coming out of lockdown from Covid-19, and there were reports that the fighting in the Donbas had intensified. However, as many considered that a domestic issue, the fighting there has never had much media coverage. When I saw news that Ukraine was handing out weapons to civilians who wanted them to protect themselves it reminded me of the days when America didn’t have a fully fledged army and civilians were told to arm themselves. I thought to myself, surely in this day and age it can’t be so, but it turns out that the Ukrainian army was ill-prepared for an attack in terms of manpower and arms.
Over the past year or so, we have read accounts of small settlements who had to barricade themselves and to form their own militia to protect their village or hamlet, and others who waited for the Ukrainian army to come and liberate and rescue them. The current news is Ukraine’s mobilisation programme or rather the failure of it and how to resolve the issue. I would say it’s a bit too late, 19 months into the war to finally enforce mobilisation as most men have fled the country or have secured some paperwork to dodge mobilisation.
Back in March/April of 2022, when Kyiv was being attacked I was perplexed at the number of young men that were videoed in the city, claiming that Kyiv is back to normal with nightclubs and bars open after missile attacks. Why weren’t these young men fighting if there was mobilisation in place? It all seemed rather odd with photos of young men out enjoying themselves while others were fighting with the few weapons available. We later found out that there had been significant corruption, with doctors and others falsifying papers claiming men were medically unfit to serve. The problem Ukraine has now is reverse all these false documents, but then the men in question who obviously don’t want to fight will then flee the country somehow. That doesn’t solve the problem of the need for Ukrainian soldiers to replace the wounded, the dead, and those who need to be rotated.
Ukraine has never had sufficient weapons, and the ones donated by the allies had conditions tied to them—they could not be used on Russian soil. They now face the issue of manufacturing them in conjunction with western companies inside Ukraine, but that takes time and money, meanwhile, Russia is being supplied with weapons from Iran and North Korea.
The democratic countries want and need Ukraine to win, and while ammunition and weapons are being manufactured, they need trained soldiers to operate the equipment and to fight. How do they resolve the latter? Perhaps they need to shift to the tactics used in the previous world wars, and that means the women must take over other roles so that men in offices and government jobs can then go to the front line and fight? The fact is the soldiers fighting have not had a real break, many are tired, wounded and are not able to perform at their peak and Russia knows this. However, unlike Ukraine, Russia will bring in mercenary armies and mobilisation has been in place quietly since the invasion began.
What Ukraine needs IMHO, is to get their army in shape and right now they have the loyal patriots fighting, but there are many who are content to carry on dodging their duty and Ukraine needs to stop the corruption in the mobilisation offices. They need to get their house in order rather than to keep ‘begging’ for more money and arms from other countries. They need to prove that their army is ready and willing to fight before asking for confiscated Russian assets to be used to rebuild Ukraine—you need to defeat Russia first, and that must be the first priority. It seems that Ukraine has accepted that aid will decrease, and instead they are forging relationships with companies to open factories in Ukraine to help manufacture the equipment they need in order to defeat Russia. Russia has more weapons and a larger disposable army.
While I have been documenting this war, there are days I feel deflated when I read another corruption story, or that another person in Ukraine has been arrested or sentenced for aiding the Russians. You can see why Ukraine was invaded so easily now in hindsight, and yet the corruption continues to this day. Until it is halted, then what hope does Ukraine have with so many Russian spies embedded within the government and amongst Ukrainian society?
Day 680 (4 Jan)
On 3 January 2024, 230 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were returned to Ukraine in the first prisoner swap since August 2023. The swap had been assisted by the United Arab Emirates who acted as mediators. All 230 POWs had been tortured as they tell of their experiences.
After the attack in Belgorod, Russian media posted images of the missile fragments, but deleted them once it was discovered the missile fragments that caused damage were actually Russian air defence missiles.
Russia accidentally dropped munitions on the Russian town, and for people were injured in Petropavlovka.
The United Russia Party is recruiting for the Hispaniola or Espanyola mercenary group, by targeting radicals, people in poor rural areas and displaced people. It looks like an organised Wagner group that is being funded by the government.
NATO-Ukraine council is to hold an emergency meeting due to the increased strikes from Russia. I don’t really know what it can accomplish as Ukraine needs more ammunition (needs to be manufactured), more trained troops (mobilisation has been corrupted), and more weapons (needs soldiers to be trained on how to use them).
NATO has agreed to buy 1000 Patriot missiles for its coalition members that include Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain. This is to help them rebuild their stocks after donating equipment to your crew.
Poland has stated it cannot rule out provocation when a Russian missile flies through Polish airspace, and stated they have information to confirm it was a Russian missile that was in Polish airspace. They also claim it was not accidental that the missile crossed 40km across the border either.
Day 681 (5 Jan)
In Kyrgyzstan, imports began to rise from China in March 2022 when sanctions were imposed against Russia. It seems obvious as to where the shipments were actually been sent to which is Russia. As a result the economy has tripled and thus are benefiting from the war and it looks as if they will support Russia for their own gains.
Czechia and Germany offer Ukraine additional military aid packages—26 Dana-M2 set-propelled artillery units, and Germany will provide further air defence systems (Skynex) and ammunition for the Leopard tanks.
The Ukraine mobilisation crisis—the police have 9,000 criminal cases of evading military mobilisation, where court proceedings for 2,600 cases have already been issued. Unsure how this will help mobilisation when you have unwilling soldiers and this is costing time and resources.
More than 220 Russian soldiers have used the ‘I want to live’ hotline to surrender to Ukraine. At present, there are 1000 cases pending, as the authorities verify the information and then arrange a time and place for the surrender.
Two Norwegian F-16 jets have arrived in Denmark to assist with the training for Ukrainian pilots, along with ten instructors.
More corruption in Ukraine—Anton Kravets, the founder of Kyivguma, a Ukrainian company has been arrested for supplying tactical medical supplies to Russia.
Latvia is to work with Ukraine to produce drones in Ukraine.
Nepal has stopped issuing work permits for Russia due to the number of Nepalese citizens being recruited and killed while fighting as mercenaries for the Russian army.
Reports claim that missile fragments used by the Russia appear to have originated from North Korea. This would not be a surprise as exports to Russia seem to have increased from North Korea after Putin and Kim Jong Un met last year.
A UN Security Council meeting will be held on 10 January 2024, to discuss North Korea's supply of ballistic missiles to Russia.
Russia seeks to expand propaganda by setting up cultural centres in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to influence the Middle East and North Africa.
Day 682 (6 Jan)
The Russians hit Pokrovsk in Donetsk, as Russia intensifies strikes in the region. Kherson was also targeted again destroying the council building in the village of Tiahyynka.
Ukraine hit the Russian Saky military post in occupied Crimea.
Zaluzhniny, the Ukrainian head of the army has been laying out his plans for mobilisation, stating each rotation would be 36 months, so the current soldiers would have 12 months left. His problem is to recruit from mobilisation that has largely failed, and to train the army to replace the rotation due to end in 12 months.
Denmark is to delay the delivery of F-16s that were due in Ukraine at the end of 2023 by six months. This is probably good news for Russia, and perhaps the press should report less on these matters that appear to benefit Russia and that make Ukraine appear weaker?
The US could run out of Patriot missiles to supply to Ukraine as it cannot keep up with the demand. While the air defence systems have intercepted the bulk of Russian missiles and drones, Ukraine is not reliant on them for defensive purposes.
Day 683 (7 Jan)
Putin has signed in a law on 4 January 2024, granting immediate Russian citizenship to Ukrainian children who were kidnapped/deported to Russia. This is in an attempt to prevent them being returned to Ukraine and tries to circumvent international law (which forbids this) as Putin has an arrest warrant issued for the deportation of Ukrainian children, but by trying to make them Russian citizens appears to be an attempt to remove an evidence of deportation. This act would also make adopting the children by Russians easier.
The Japanese Foreign Minister, Kamikawa Yoko made an unannounced visit to Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy focuses on EU and NATO membership again, as he knows this is the only way to reinforce allies and ties with other countries. However, he must accept the fact that corruption within Ukraine is part of the reason why the counteroffensive is not successful and why mobilisation has also failed. In the end, NATO membership is not possible until Russia is defeated, and that cannot be done when you don’t have a trained militia.
Day 684 (8 Jan)
Russia launched attacks overnight at Kharkiv, Zaporozhzia and Dnipro where there have been injuries. It looks as if the Russians will keep targeting the same areas until they have taken control of the east and the south of Ukraine.
I find the dismal widespread corruption in Ukraine to be discouraging, to say the least, and daunting.