A Deal To End The Grain Blockade Is Signed, But The EU Concedes Sanctions Against Russia
Draghi (Italian Prime Minister) resigns as Americans are killed in Donbas
As expected, a deal to end the grain blockade has been made but at what cost, and what assurances are there that Russia will keep to their side of the agreement? Mirrored agreements were signed in Ankara, Turkey which have been hailed as a landmark step towards ending the invasion, but it is anything but IMHO.
The mirror agreements were signed, with Ukraine signing only with Turkey and not directly with Russia. Russia was represented by Sergei Shoigu (Russian Defence Minister) and Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister, Oleg Kubrakov. The deal is set to last for 120 days, where Russia has claimed they have never blocked the ports and has blamed Ukraine for setting the mines, and the West for imposing sanctions against Russia.
Turkey (Erdogan) is playing this up, claiming this ‘...will hopefully revive the path to peace’, whereas at least the useless UN (Guterres) has stated, ‘At the moment, I see no conditions for a peace process’, which is far more honest and realistic.
Russia wants to buy the affections of allies, and that means the poor African countries and India. That is what they are doing, and trying to show that they are not the baddies here. The UN is supposed to be assisting Turkey in inspecting the Russian ships, but all these roles are open to corruption as we have seen in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, more weapons trickle into Ukraine and domestic politics (change of Prime Minister in the UK and Italy within months) will play a part when the war escalates. The UK and US are currently. training Ukrainian soldiers by sea, land and air—they are doing so because they expect this war to escalate and want the Ukrainians to be prepared so their troops will not be relied upon.
I have never believed that sanctions work, they are a light threat and nothing more. As I write, there has been an attack on the port of Odesa, when there was an agreement for Russia to ceasefire on ports while the grain was in transit. Did anyone think to add that Russia should not attack the ports while the grain was being loaded? The agreement hasn’t even lasted a day! The Russians claim it has nothing to do with them, and while the UN has condemned the attack they can’t even bring themselves to say that Russia was at fault. Quite frankly, what did the world expect?
The EU’s actions says it all—they conceded to Russia and made up a rule to appease and stop the threats. Russia is the bully, and when you give a bully what they want, they simply demand and make further threats. What is the point of sanctions that have little effect on the masses? It is in but name alone, and a gesture and one that hasn't deterred Russia at all. Think of it as a parent grounding a child who has been a bully—it won’t stop them bullying and they will find ways around doing what they want as Russia has.
Day 149 (22 July)
An agreement to end the grain blockade or rather to negotiate safe passage of the Ukrainian vessels out of the Black Sea was agreed on Friday afternoon. The UN Secretary General said it was the most important thing he had done during his time in the role, Turkey signed and have agreed to carry out inspections (with the UN) on Russian vessels to ensure that they do not transport sanctioned items or weapons, Ukrainian vessels will escort the freighters through mined waters, and Russia will hold a truce/ceasefire while the vessels pass through the ports and when in transit
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In exchange, Russia will be able to export grain and fertilisers to other countries. While they had not been forbidden to export food items, they had been blocked from using ports. The fertiliser issue seems to have been conceded since some countries are struggling to grow food, and the point of the exercise is to stop a food shortage in the world.
How successful will the ‘deal’ be, where safe exports are due to take place in a few weeks? This deal has taken several months to achieve, and the UN concedes that if Russia reneges on the agreement there is nothing they can do about it. There is no punishment available for non-compliance. If Turkey fails to carry out adequate inspections, again there is no punishment available. As they ignored the Russian vessels with stolen grain in their port, who will check them besides the UN?
While Turkey hails this is a ‘victory’, as they wish to claim credit for the ‘deal’, this benefited all parties in one way or another. It elevates Turkey on the international platform as ‘successful negotiators’, Ukraine can sell their grain supply, and the UN just turned up so they would look relevant to save the world from famine. Russia has benefited greatly—they have had some sanctions eased, and have, to the international community, appeared to have been open to negotiations and to be reasonable. That is important if they wish to gain allies such as India, Russia needs to make them happy, with fertiliser and grain, and all the African countries too. There is no point having allies who have a starving population due to their actions. In essence, all Russia have done is promise not to fire on Ukrainian vessels, even though they are in the wrong and trespassing, and are able to export some of their goods, even though they had been exporting stolen grain so by switching off their trackers.
The UN seemed to only care about their World Food Programme, and that they had enough grain to feed the poor countries in the world. They probably should care more about World War III, and trying to stop Russia from destroying the West and democracy, because the famine will be the least of their problems.
There is more evidence that Russia has been looting $600 million worth of steel from plants in Ukraine. Metinvest in Mariupol, has stated that inventory has been exported to Russia, and sold on in Asia and Africa. Some of the materials have been paid for by European customers already, so they are stealing goods from the plants and the customers. Pursuing legal action against Russia is possible, but the chances of a successful conviction is low as tracking the shipments will be hard as the actual evidence will have been transformed.
Russia claims there are no peace talks with Ukraine, stating Ukraine has no desire to discuss anything in earnest. Roughly translated, that means that Ukraine was not going to agree to all their demands.
Google has been blocked in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk areas as they claim that the entity is responsible for the spread of lies and misinformation of the the special military operation, which promotes violence against Russians.
The Royal Navy is training 1000 Ukrainian soldiers in Scotland, to help build up the Ukrainian defences, and preparing them for combat.
A Royal Navy warship has tracked two Russian submarines while carrying out exercises in the North Sea, near Bergen, Norway. The HMS Portland shadowed the Severodvinsk cruise missile vessel and the Vespr Akula class (nuclear powered) submarines as one of them surfaced. Reporting of such incidents is unusual, but perhaps this is aimed at deterring Russia from carrying out further action?
There is more action in Ukraine to stamp out corruption, with Medvedchuk related assets being seized, including land, property ,corporate rights, and bank accounts. He is a Ukrainian oligarch who has been loyal to Putin for the last two decades.
Another oligarch (Hennadiy Korban) had his Ukrainian passport confiscated and was denied entry into the country as his citizenship was revoked.
Day 150 (23 July)
Another traitor has been named, suspected of high treason. Volodymr Sivkovych is accused of mananging a network of spies for Russia, while he was deputy secretary of the Security Council.
The US has announced that two Americans have been killed while fighting for Ukraine in the Donbas, They have not been named as yet while the families are being notified, nor have the details surrounding their death been released
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The EU has bent the sanction rules to allow concrete and raw materials to be transported through Lithuania to Kaliningrad (Russian enclave). This comes after the ‘grain deal’ where the EU have now claimed the sanctions only applied to good transported by road, and not by rail. Funny how they decided this was the case a month after the sanctions were imposed, and on the day when the grain deal was agreed
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What is the point of sanctions if you chop and change the rules to appease the other side due to threats? There will be inspections by the Lithuanian officials, but this can be seen as a win for Russia, as they threatened and have now got what they wanted
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Ukraine has more than $10 billion worth of grain to export, and this is hoped to ease the food shortage. The World Food Program (UN) purchases grain to send to poverty stricken countries in Africa, and this will help the people who have suffered indirectly from the Russian invasion.
Hungarian representatives have visited Russia, and have also called for the EU to have a new strategy as sanctions against Russia are not working. This comes as the Hungarian Foreign Minister flew to Russia to secure more gas supplies on Thursday. Orban has also stated that Ukraine is not winning the war, thus indicating support for Russia as many expected.
Russian has smuggled weapons into Kherson disguised as humanitarian aid, and are storing them in schools and cultural buildings which will not be targeted. This is as low as you can get really, hiding behind children and churches.
In Odesa today, the port has been hit by two missiles as it loads grain into freighters. Turkey has approached Russia on the incident, and the Russians claim that it was not them.
"In our contact with Russia, the Russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack, and that they were examining the issue very closely and in detail," Hulusai Akar, Turkish Defence Minister.
No coincidence the sanction rules have been altered to permit certain materials to be transported from Lithuania to Kalingrad after the grain deal was announced.
As the saying goes, if you lay down with dogs, don't be surprised if you wake up with fleas. I see a lot of scratching in the future for Turkey and the UN.